MASS GRAVES COULD STRAIN US-MEXICO RELATIONS

As Of Yesterday, The Remains Of Two People Were Found On Ranches Linked To
Drug Cartel

The discovery of mass graves on at least two Mexican ranches near the Texas
border is more than just another grisly reminder of the unmeasured violence
of Mexico's drug traffickers.

Both US and Mexican officials speculate that some of the bodies may be
those of missing American citizens. The Federal Bureau of Investigation is
assisting Mexican authorities in the search and body identification. What
the Mexican tabloids are calling the "narco cemeteries" is sure to be a
fresh test for US-Mexico relations.

Searchers unearthed two bodies Tuesday on a horse ranch outside Ciudad
Juarez, across the Rio Grande from El Paso, Texas. Juarez is home to one of
Mexico's most powerful and violent cocaine cartels. It holds the dubious
honor of being declared by Amnesty International a world capital of
"disappeared" persons. The assembly-plant town is also infamous for the
murders of more than 200 young women over recent years, most of which have
never been cleared up.

While officials are talking of about 100 bodies that could eventually be
dug up, other observers speculate the number could go higher since some 200
people are listed as having gone missing in Ciudad Juarez over the last
five years. The Mexican Attorney General's Office is speculating that the
missing persons may have fallen victim to the Juarez cartel, which
unleashed a wave of violence in its home city after the death of its
kingpin, Amado Carrillo Fuentes, in 1997.

Focus on the Juarez ranches followed testimony by Mexican cocaine runners
apprehended in El Paso earlier this year who told FBI investigators where
they could find mass graves, according to sources in El Paso.

That some of the bodies are being dug up on property apparently owned by El
Paso resident Jaime Ortiz, son of a Mexican federal police official gunned
down in Juarez in 1996, reinforces long-held concerns over the deep
penetration of the illegal drug business into Mexican law enforcement.

The ranch's connection to official circles is fueling speculation that the
bodies may include the victims of dozens of police kidnappings suspected to
have occurred in Juarez over the last few years. Jaime Hervella, president
of the El Paso-Juarez Association of Relatives and Friends of Disappeared
Persons, says the majority of the 196 disappearances he has listed since
1995 are persons who were detained by supposed Mexican police agents and
never seen again.

In both Washington and Mexico City, officials are lauding the degree of
cooperation between the two countries on illegal drug and justice issues.
But the heat could be turned up as the investigations continue and
especially if speculation that the bodies could include those of two Drug
Enforcement Agency agents is confirmed, analysts say.

President Clinton called the graves "a horrible example of the excesses of
the drug-trafficking cartels in Mexico," and said that successful action
against Colombia's drug cartels had pushed much of the drug operations
north into the hands of Mexico's "particularly vicious" drug traffickers.

In Mexico City, Attorney General Jorge Madrazo Cuellar rejected charges
that FBI agents are violating his country's sovereignty. Some 600 Mexican
law enforcement and army officials are working along with about 60 FBI and
US forensics personnel. Mr. Cuellar sees this as "an important operation
demonstrating binational cooperation...."

But some Mexican analysts say the accolades to binational cooperation by
the two countries' top officials can only temporarily mask new tensions
over the mass graves - especially if the large number of suspected US
victims is confirmed.

"This is going to mean more friction, more suspicions about cooperation -
especially at the ground level in cooperation with Mexican law enforcement
- - and even greater wariness in the US about what's going on in Mexico,"
says Jorge Chabat, an expert in binational drug policies and relations in
Mexico City. "If the number of US citizens [in the graves] is confirmed
this will have an impact in US public opinion, and that could push Clinton
to think hard about relations with Mexico."

Samuel Schmidt, director of border studies at the Autonomous University of
Ciudad Juarez, says the Mexican attorney general's acceptance of FBI
participation in the Mexican investigation is a sign of growing cooperation
between the two countries. But the cooperation is a risk, he adds, "since
it is as good as saying they can't do the work themselves. They are also
going to have to share information that they don't usually give up."

Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo is scheduled to visit Mr. Clinton at the
White House Dec. 9. Drug trafficking was already on the two presidents'
agenda, but the Juarez graves will put border violence higher up, analysts
say. One consequence of the discovered bodies will likely be renewed
pressure on Mexico to allow US DEA agents Mexico to carry arms, Mr. Chabat
says.

The mass graves and suspicions of police involvement are a further blow to
Mexico's efforts to improve the image of its crime-fighting abilities and
the efficiency of its police forces, analysts say.

"People have become accustomed to the bodies that are left on the roadside
by drug traffickers as some kind of message," says Chabat, "but if they can
kill 100 people and bury them, and no one is held responsible, that says a
lot about the abilities of the Mexican state."

If the killings at the ranch turn out to be related to drug trafficking,
the whole incident will have little impact among the "regular, law-abiding
citizens of [Juarez]," says border specialist Schmidt. "But if the victims
include some of the city's disappeared who weren't involved in the drug
trade, then I think we'll see some outrage."