MEXICO DECERTIFICATION TO BE MULLED

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The discovery of bodies of suspected drug-cartel victims
on an arid Mexican ranch may have reverberations 2,000 miles away when
Congress debates in March whether Mexico is a cooperating ally in the war
on narcotics.

While U.S. officials are praising Mexico's cooperation in allowing the FBI
to participate in the exhumations of as many as 100 victims, the grisly
operation offers vivid evidence of the lawlessness in regions controlled by
Mexico's drug kingpins.

``What we're really talking about is the most powerful organized crime
systems in the world,'' said Thomas Constantine, who retired as head of the
Drug Enforcement Administration earlier this year. ``They create more
damage in the United States than they ever have before.''

U.S. lawmakers, who have chafed at Mexico's inability to crack down on the
drug cartels, will be called on in March to decide whether to certify
Mexico and other drug-producing countries as cooperative allies.
Decertification could lead to economic sanctions and loss of foreign aid.

Certification of Mexico, which is the transit point for an estimated 70
percent of all illicit drugs smuggled into the United States, has been
hotly debated on Capitol Hill in recent years. But it would take a
two-thirds vote by Congress to overturn a presidential certification
recommendation -- and the Clinton administration has been a staunch ally of
Mexico.

The discovery of mass graves outside Ciudad Juarez, across the Rio Grande
from El Paso, Texas, isn't the only Mexican incident being monitored on
Capitol Hill.

U.S. politicians also are eyeing developments from a tense situation in
Matamoros where two DEA and FBI agents were surrounded by a drug
trafficker's armed henchmen -- some believed to be state police --and
nearly killed. DEA has called that Nov. 9 standoff one of the most serious
since the 1985 torture-murder of its agent Enrique Camarena in Mexico.

Whether the Ciudad Juarez and Matamoros incidents play a role in the
certification debate may turn on one key factor, some say: Arrests.

``If these events demonstrate an inability to bring to justice persons
involved, clearly that would begin to develop as a negative,'' said Sen.
Paul Coverdell, R-Ga. He has led past decertification efforts but now
favors alternate sanctions directed at drug chieftains, not their
governments.

``We'll just have to see how that unravels,'' Coverdell said of the Ciudad
Juarez and Matamoros investigations. ``I think you've got to be encouraged
that we have front-end cooperation occurring at this point.''

But Phil Jordan, a retired DEA official who still monitors drug cartels,
says the cooperation is little more than window dressing. ``The realistic
picture is a deterioration in relations because Mexico refuses adamantly to
turn over those Mexican godfathers to face justice in the United States,''
he said.

Mexico must abandon its historic reluctance to extradite major drug
kingpins, said Rep. Benjamin Gilman, chairman of the House International
Relations Committee, who has favored decertification. He also wants Mexico
to increase its drug interdiction and anti-corruption efforts, and allow
U.S. agents to carry weapons when they work in Mexico.

``When we see progress in these areas, we will know that it is no longer
business as usual,'' Gilman, R-N.Y., told Mexican officials recently.

Constantine, the former DEA administrator, said Mexico's unwillingness to
arrest traffickers is the most frustrating aspect in the U.S.-Mexican
counternarcotics relationship.

``Nobody ever gets arrested, so they are operating virtually in a
sanctuary,'' he said. ``If it turns out now that none of the leading
figures are arrested for these (Ciudad Juarez) murders, all that will
happen is these traffickers will be all the more powerful.''

Constantine's view that the joint anti-drug effort has sharply deteriorated
as Mexican drug barons have grown ever more powerful is not shared by the
White House's director of drug policy, Barry McCaffrey.

``We've gone from zero cooperation on drugs with Mexico in 1986 to
significant cooperation in the last four years,'' he said. ``But we've
still got a huge problem.''

The United States has no choice but to remain allied with Mexico to combat
trafficking, McCaffrey argued, noting that U.S. drug consumption fuels a
$57-billion-a-year illegal industry.

``We have the biggest open border on the face of the earth. Three hundred
million people cross that border each year, and 80 to 100 million cars and
trucks,'' McCaffrey said. ``We have no option but to work with Mexico ...
on the enormous common drug problem that threatens all of us.''

Appearing before a House subcommittee in September, DEA chief of operations
Richard Fiano sketched a bleak picture of law enforcement's ability to
combat the Mexican traffickers and the corruption they engender.

``Continuing reports of corruption and the rapidly growing power and
influence of the major organized criminal groups in Mexico cause us great
concern about the long-term prospects for success,'' he testified.

By one U.S. government estimate, the drug traffickers spend as much as $6
billion annually in bribes to Mexican officials. Because of rampant
corruption, DEA is using ``extreme caution'' in sharing sensitive
intelligence with Mexican counterparts, Fiano said.

But McCaffrey said the courage of Mexican officials who are combating the
drug trade at great personal risk cannot be ignored.

``They are scared. But they are determined not to hand over their own
future to those enormously frightening criminal organizations,'' he said.