EXPERT: DROP IN CRACK USE AMONG FACTORS IN DECREASING MURDER RATE

NEW YORK (AP) -- There were fewer murders this year in American
cities, a drop experts credited to the decreasing use of crack
cocaine, the aging of baby boomers and a sense of community goodwill.

However, a slight rise in murders in several big cities -- including
the nation's two largest, New York and Los Angeles -- has experts
worried that sweeping gains made by strenuous crime-fighting in recent
years could be reversed by complacency.

New York City will finish the year with the country's highest murder
tally -- as of Wednesday, there were 661 murders, compared with 629 in
1998. As of Dec. 14, Los Angeles had 414 murders, compared with 404 on
that date last year.

"The economy is good, crime is down, so we turn our attention to other
things," said James Alan Fox, a criminal justice professor at
Northeastern University. "The problem with crime is if we don't pay
attention to it, the rate of crime can rise as quickly as it fell."

FBI statistics, complete only through June, show a drop of 13 percent
in murder across the country and a 10 percent drop in all violent
crime. An Associated Press survey of the 10 largest cities shows
murders up in five, and down in the other five.

Overall, the number of homicides is far below the figures of a decade
ago -- even in those cities showing a rise.

For instance, New York City had its highest murder tally, 2,262, in
1990. The dramatic drop in killings has left the city with a murder
rate comparable to the 1960s.

In fact, five of the city's 76 police precincts have had no murders at
all this year.

Fox said several large cities seem to have reached a homicide rate
plateau after seeing dramatic declines.

"I call it the criminal justice limbo stick -- how low can you go?"
Fox said. "What comes down often goes back up again. It's like going
on a diet. Big cities have taken off the weight -- now they need to
maintain it."

Other large cities with homicide increases include Phoenix (234 so
far, 202 in 1998); San Antonio (95, 89 in 1998); San Diego (58, 42 in
1998); and San Francisco (59 through November, 58 during that same
period last year).

Chicago, the nation's third-largest city, had the highest number of
murders in the country last year with 703. This year, it could have
its lowest rate in more than 30 years; through Monday, 632 murders had
been reported there.

Other large cities posting declines are: Baltimore (306, 314 in 1998);
Boston (31, 35 in 1998); Dallas (159 through November, 222 through
November 1998); Detroit (411 through November, 500 in 1998); Houston
(237, 254 in 1998); Philadelphia (295, 335 in 1998); and Washington
(226, 252 in 1998).

Eric Monkkonen, a professor at the University of California at Los
Angeles who studies urban murders, said he thinks a factor in the drop
is the simple obeying of laws.

"I think everyone is tired of the violence," Monkkonen said. "The last
eight years or so showed that there are huge social and economic
benefits to peace."

Fox spelled out several factors that he believes have contributed to
plummeting homicide figures in the 1990s, the most obvious being the
decline in the crack cocaine market. Murder rates nationwide
skyrocketed in the 1980s when crack-related violence plagued cities,
he said.

Less obvious factors include the aging of baby boomers -- older people
tend to commit fewer crimes -- and more community involvement with
local police, church groups and other service organizations, Fox added.

"Ten years ago, citizens were hiding behind double-locked doors,
afraid to go out," Fox said. "We're getting involved in communities,
we're feeling energized and hopeful."