Aid Package For Colombia Might Lead To Quagmire

President Clinton wants to spend $1.6 billion over the next two years
trying to turn the tide in Colombia's losing war against leftist
rebels and drug traffickers.

But critics fear it will suck us into a Vietnam-style quagmire that
has claimed 35,000 lives in the past 10 years.

Already, Colombia is the third-highest U.S. aid recipient after Israel
and Egypt: $289 million last year and $200 million in the current
budget. Much of this was spent on creating an elite army battalion,
trained and equipped by U.S. Special Forces, and the new money would
finance two more.

It also would pay for a new air base in neighboring Ecuador to assist
in drug interception by the Colombian air force and, possibly, U.S.
intelligence flights.

The presence of 220 American advisers and routine sharing of U.S.
intelligence with the Colombian military demonstrate our deepening
involvement there. But it has not stopped rebel gains and growing drug
production.

Guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia -- FARC --
and the smaller National Liberation Army -- ELN -- control half the
countryside, providing a protected zone for narco-traffickers who pay
them up to $600 million a year in "war taxes." This has enabled the
rebels to buy sophisticated arms and score significant victories over
the demoralized Colombian army, such as overrunning a marine base near
the Panamanian border recently.

In announcing the aid package Tuesday, Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright stressed that "this is not a counterinsurgency program. This
is a counternarco-trafficking program." But Gen. Charles Wilhelm,
chief of the U.S. Army's Southern Command, admits "it's hard to
separate the two. The guerrillas draw their sustenance and support
from narco-traffickers."

The Drug Enforcement Administration says Colombia is responsible for
80 percent of the world's cocaine supply, as well as being a major
supplier of high-grade heroin to American markets. It estimates that
cocaine production has doubled in the past four years to 165 tons annually.

While production is up, drug seizures are down by as much as 45
percent. According to figures released by Colombia's National Police,
only 30 tons of pure cocaine and semi-refined cocaine base were seized
in 1999, compared with a record 55 tons in 1998. Eradication of
illegal drug crops also declined by 20 percent last year.

President Andres Pastrana launched peace talks with FARC a year ago.
But he has drawn heavy criticism for giving the rebels a
Switzerland-size safe haven, cleared of government troops, without
getting a cease-fire in return. Even Pastrana's own ruling
Conservative Party has expressed "great skepticism about the outcome."

FARC called a Christmas truce but vows never to disarm and wants the
government to give in to its demands before agreeing to a permanent
cease-fire. These include ending "the shameless military intervention
in our country by the government of the United States" and banning the
extradition of Colombian drug traffickers to U.S. courts. Colombia had
such a ban for six years but lifted it in 1997.

Other demands on a FARC wish list published in December call for
radical economic measures to ease the social cost of Colombia's worst
recession. They include a blanket ban on new taxes, a price freeze on
basic consumer goods, unemployment insurance for Colombia's burgeoning
jobless and debt relief for those trapped in a widely criticized,
government-backed mortgage program.

However, many believe the guerrillas are so corrupted by drug money
they are more interested in protecting their source of income than
pursuing their social agenda. FARC denies this, just as it denies
being actively involved in the drug trade, but acknowledges that it
taxes every kilo of cocaine produced in areas under its control.

Congress favors increasing drug-fighting money for Colombia but
worries about military involvement. In a report issued last May, the
House Armed Service Committee said it "supports continued U.S.
cooperation with the government of Colombia to stem the flow of
illegal drugs but remains concerned over the prospect of U.S. military
personnel being drawn into Colombia's civil war."

Colombian generals warn, however, that unless they get more military
aid, the rebels could seize power within 10 years. And U.S.
intelligence estimates are even gloomier, halving the time frame to
five years.