U.S. AID PREDICTED TO TURN COLOMBIA DRUG TIDE

(BOGOTA, Colombia) -- Despite a surge in Colombia's cocaine production,
a top Pentagon official on Thursday predicted that a proposed $1.6
billion U.S. aid package would help turn the tide in the drug war.

"Drug production has increased dramatically and will continue to
increase if we do not take immediate steps, and that's what this plan
is about," said Louis Caldera, the secretary of the U.S. Army who is
on the final leg of a trip to Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Colombia.

"We have a lot of confidence that this program will show dramatic
results in 18 months," he said.

Most of the money in the two-year emergency aid plan announced by the
Clinton administration last week would help Colombia's army and police
fight Marxist guerrillas, who are heavily involved in the drug trade.

It would also expand a controversial policy of forcibly eradicating
vast plantations of coca leaves, the raw material for cocaine.

The aid package marks a sharp increase in Washington's commitment to
Colombia, which received about $300 million in U.S. assistance last
year. Colombia is the third leading recipient of U.S. aid after Israel
and Egypt.

Even so, analysts say that the flow of Colombian drugs to the United
States is larger than ever.

According to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, Colombia is
expected to produce 330 to 440 tons of cocaine this year, up from an
estimated 220 tons in 1999.

Colombia supplies about 80 percent of the cocaine and the majority of
the heroin consumed in the United States.

Soon-to-be released CIA estimates of Colombian land being used to grow
coca will indicate an increase of up to 50 percent in the past year,
according to Thomas Umberg, deputy director of White House Drug
Control Policy, who is traveling with Caldera.

But Umberg said that more U.S. aid could reverse this
trend.

The Clinton administration's proposal, which requires congressional
approval but appears to have bipartisan support, includes 38
helicopters for the underequipped Colombian army and resources and
training for three elite counterdrug battalions.

The plan is designed to pave the way for a Colombian military push
into southern Putumayo and Caqueta states.

Because this region is largely controlled by guerrillas who attack
police crop-dusting planes, pilots have been unable to spray coca
plantations in the two states, and coca production has
skyrocketed.

The new strategy involves sending in counterdrug battalions to secure
drug-producing areas for fumigation.

One U.S.-trained counterdrug battalion is already operating in
southern Colombia, and two more battalions will be activated later
this year, Caldera said.

About 170 U.S. troops are training the counterdrug battalions. But
Caldera said that American soldiers will not take part in field operations.

"You have to be able to go down and control the area," Umberg said.
"This is an (aid) package designed to really address the problems in a
comprehensive way in a relatively short period of time."

U.S. efforts to wipe out coca and promote legal crops have had success
in Bolivia and Peru, where drug production has dropped dramatically in
recent years.

Drug cartels responded by shifting much of their coca production to
Colombia, where the government is unable to control much of the
countryside due to a 36-year-old guerrilla war.

Critics say that even if coca plantations in Putumayo and Caqueta are
destroyed, the crop is so lucrative that peasants may simply push
deeper into the jungle to plant more.

Umberg pointed out, however, that the U.S. aid proposal includes
millions of dollars for programs to encourage coca farmers to grow
legal crops.

In the past, Washington has refused to support alternative development
in Colombia due to fears that the money would wind up in rebel hands.