MEXICO CLAIMS GREATER SUCCESS IN WAR ON DRUGS

Officials Argue For Certification

MEXICO CITY -- Mexico fired an opening salvo Wednesday in the annual
debate about whether the country should be certified as a U.S. ally in
the drug war.

Top government and military officials issued a report designed to put
the best face on Mexico's antinarcotics efforts, including statistics
showing that seizures of cocaine and marijuana had increased in 1999.

The cocaine haul in the past two months alone is about 40 percent of
the total for the year, the officials said. Seizures of marijuana were
reported up 46 percent over 1998's total.

Just this week, 3 tons of cocaine were confiscated from a fishing
trawler off Mexico's Pacific coast, the officials said.

They also showed off new airplanes and helicopters for antidrug
missions and touted new satellite technology used to track drug shipments.

Announcements of major drug seizures and new hardware have become part
of a pattern in the month or so leading up to President Clinton's
decision about which countries to certify as drug-fighting allies.

"This has become the annual Kabuki dance. Everyone has their role and
they all play it," said Delal Baer, an expert in U.S.-Mexico relations
at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington
think tank.

But this year, Mexican authorities say it's different. They point out
that they have invested nearly $170 million in the drug war in the
past year They have purchased new helicopters, created elite
amphibious units, bought night vision goggles and ordered fast attack
boats.

"We've got more technologically sophisticated equipment than we've
ever had in order to confront this challenge. We've applied more
resources and applied them better," said Mexican Interior Secretary
Diodoro Carrasco. "Without doubt the results evaluated here today
demonstrate the seriousness of an institutional commitment."

But many U.S. antidrug officials and Mexican observers remain
skeptical. U.S. officials maintain that the amount of cocaine that
enters the United States has not abated. And while seizures last year
were 12 percent above 1998's level, they were still significantly
lower than 1997's.

Jorge Chabat, an expert in drug policy at a Mexico City think tank,
said, "There are reports that the production of cocaine is increasing,
so the fact the Mexican authorities are seizing more isn't surprising.

"What's important is how much is getting through, and there's no
indication that it is any less."

Clinton must recommend to Congress by March 1 whether countries that
transport and produce drugs are cooperating in the drug war. According
to the Reagan-era law that sets up the certification process, Congress
must approve the administration's recommendation.

It is more than just an academic debate. Decertified countries face
substantial trade sanctions and economic penalties.

Mexican officials say that worse still, decertification would be a
humiliation, marking their nation as a narco-state in the same
category as Afghanistan, Paraguay and Cambodia, which last year failed
to receive certification.

The Clinton administration and Mexican officials are tired of the
annual turmoil that the certification debate causes in the U.S.-Mexico
relationship. The administration is sending out early signals in hopes
of stifling any talk that Mexico may be decertified or is not fully
cooperating in the drug war.

In a visit here earlier this month, Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright struck an upbeat tone when asked about Mexico's prospects,
saying the two countries were cooperating well in the drug war.

"I do believe that history will regard this period in U.S.- Mexican
relations as a turning point," she said.

Last fall, U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey praised Mexico's higher
level of seizures. "The numbers are spectacular," he told reporters.

The fight not only creates tension between the two countries, but
within Clinton's administration.

Last year, enforcement agencies showed their displeasure with what
they view as rampant drug corruption among the highest levels of
Mexico's political and business establishment by making their concerns
public.

Thomas Constantine, who was chief of the Drug Enforcement Agency at
the time, told the Senate that the drug cartels' control in Mexico
represented "a threat of unprecedented proportions and gravity."

Two days later, Clinton recommended the country for certification as a
drug-fighting ally.

The debate has caused enough problems that administration officials
are frank about their desire to see the process discontinued. Sen.
Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., has joined with Sen. Phil Gramm, R-Texas, in
proposing that certification be dropped for countries that have
bilateral antinarcotics agreements with the United States. Mexico is
the only country with such an agreement.

Analysts say this year's certification debate could end up being
relatively calm -- but not because of any view in Washington that
Mexico is trying harder or being more effective.

"Certification fatigue has probably set in just about everywhere,"
said Baer of the Washington think tank.

"After banging our heads against this wall year after year, a lot of
people in Congress, not just the administration, have begun to wonder
whether this process has any value."