MOOD OF CHANGE SEIZES SCOTS

Tide Turns As People Accept Shifting Social Landscape In Defiance Of Church
And State

MO MOWLAM is against them but once dabbled herself. Jack Straw is against
too but his son was once caught with them. Labour's hard-line stance on
drugs has already proved a potential source of political embarrassment. Now
our ICM/Scotland on Sunday 2000 poll suggests the government may have
misjudged the tide of public opinion too.

No less than 43% of Scots now say that taking cannabis should be made
legal. Although this is less than the 48% who say it should remain illegal,
the result shows that far from being politically unmentionable, there are
now a significant number of Scots who are beginning to question the law on
cannabis.

Indeed, opinion appears to be moving dramatically. Four years ago there was
still a decisive majority against change, with 58% against the legalisation
of cannabis and just 34% in favour.

Our poll gives every reason to suggest that opinion will continue to
change. Among our special sample of nearly 350 'young Scots' aged 18 to 24,
60% are in favour of the legalisation of cannabis while just 35% are
against. Their views are largely shared by 25 to 34-year-olds. Only among
the over-55s is there still a clear majority opposed.

We already have the first generation of politicians to admit that they
tried cannabis in their youth. Now it looks as though the next generation
may have to consider taking the next step of converting their honesty into
support for reform. Indeed, one party leader, Charles Kennedy, has already
called for a Royal Commission on the subject.

But opinions on cannabis are perhaps but the latest manifestation of a
broader wind of social change sweeping across Scotland. Many traditional
values have, it seems, already been overturned. Indeed, although it may be
that Cardinal Thomas Winning, head of Scotland's Catholics, is in tune with
the majority of Scots on the teaching of homosexuality in schools - as the
poll showed two weeks ago - on many other issues the Catholic hierarchy
appears isolated.

The Catholic Church wishes to retain the system of separate Catholic
schools in Scotland, but an overwhelming 84% of Scots believe these should
be phased out, while just 13% say they should be retained. Even among
Catholics themselves, just 31% favour the retention of separate schools.

Moreover, opinion seems to have hardened over the past decade. In 1992, the
Scottish Election Study found there were still 20% in favour of separate
schools. Yet so far, as has been the case with legalising cannabis, few
politicians have been willing to broach the issue in public.

The Catholic Church is, of course, also against abortion. Yet our poll
suggests there is little enthusiasm for changing the existing law, which,
depending on the health and circumstances of the woman, allows an abortion
at up to 24 weeks.

Just 14% think the law should be changed to make it harder for a woman to
get an abortion, counterbalanced by 15% who think it should be made easier.
Meanwhile two in three Scots think the law should remain as it is,
including 62% of Catholics.

Moral campaigners opposed to artificial contraception are also going
against the mood of the country, specifically on the issue of making
contraceptive advice available to those aged below the age of consent, that
is 16. Yet more than four in five Scots say that doctors and nurses should
be allowed to give contraceptive advice to under-16s. And again, Catholics
themselves are largely in tune with their fellow Scots, with three-quarters
in favour.

The Catholic Church preaches the indissolubility of marriage and that
children should be brought up by both parents. Yet 62% of Scots believe
that a single parent can bring up a child as well as two parents can. Just
34% disagree. Among women 70% feel a single parent can do just as good a
job.

In short it looks as though some of the biggest social changes in family
life in the second half of the 20th century - abortion, contraception and
single parenthood - have now become an accepted part of life. We evidently
should not assume that the legalisation of cannabis and an undivided
schooling system might not also similarly come to be an accepted part of
our social landscape during the 21st century.

Certainly, young Scots appear to have accepted the social changes that were
part of their own childhood. They are particularly likely to think that a
single parent can bring up a child as well as two parents, with 74% taking
that view. They are also somewhat more likely to favour making abortion
easier to obtain, though at 19% this proportion is dwarfed by the 66% who
want things to remain as they are. And 85% of them think that doctors and
nurses should be allowed to give contraceptive advice to under-16s.

But not all change is desired or desirable. Many people argue that our 20th
century love affair with the car will have to end before many years of the
21st century have passed. But separation is not yet on most people's
agenda. A full 58% oppose the idea of charging motorists a pound or two
every time they drive into a city centre at peak times. Only 36% are in
favour, though among young Scots this figure does rise to 45%.

At the same time Scots have not lost faith in the merits of the country's
traditionally strong public education system. Just 37% say that they would
send a child of theirs to a private school even if they could afford to do
so or say they actually have a child at such a school at the moment. As
many as 59% say they would not send a child to a private school.

Equally, frequently expressed concerns that rising rates of school exam
passes reflect declining standards rather than higher levels of achievement
do not receive a widespread echo. For every Scot who thinks that the
standards of Highers and Standard Grades are lower now than they were 10
years ago, there is another who thinks they are higher, while one in three
think that little has changed. And among our young Scots who have the most
recent experience at the chalkface, more (32%) think that standards are
higher now than think they are lower (20%).

Scotland may have changed and its weather may not always be kind, but for
the vast majority of Scots their country is still a good place to be. An
overwhelming 87% say that they would still opt to live in Scotland even if
they were able to choose where they and their family live. Young Scots are
a little more likely to say they would opt to live elsewhere - nearly one
in five would leave, but rather than indicating a new generation of
disenchanted Scots this figure probably reflects the fact they have had
less chance to act on their preference than those in older age groups.

This mood continues when it comes to more specific features of life in
Scotland today. A full 58% say that Scotland is a good place to bring up
children. Only 5% say that it is a bad place with the remainder saying it
is neither good nor bad.

Equally, two in three say that they are satisfied with their standard of
living while just one in three are dissatisfied. Young Scots are the most
satisfied of all with no less than three-quarters being satisfied, perhaps
because for many of them the financial responsibilities of home and family
have yet to make themselves felt.

So, for all its reputation as a nation that specialises in
self-denigration, it seems that in practice the majority of Scots enter the
new Millennium relatively content with their lot.

But we are not a nation without worries. A majority of Scots worry either
'a lot' or 'a little' about health, money, jobs and crime. Our biggest
concern is health. Little more than one in five do not worry at all about
the health of themselves and their family, while nearly twice as many worry
'a lot'.

In contrast, despite the prominence it receives in the media, crime is the
least of our troubles. As many as 37% do not worry about being a victim of
crime while just 28% worry 'a lot'. But women worry much more about it than
men with no less than 33% saying they worry 'a lot'.

Economic worries meanwhile come in between. Just 32% of us do not worry
about the possibility of losing our own job or of someone else in the
family doing so. And just 30% do not worry at all about having enough money
to pay the bills. Intriguingly, despite their high level of satisfaction
with their standard of living, it is young Scots who are most likely to be
worried about money, with 46% worrying a lot, more than twice the
proportion who do so among the over-65s.

So Scotland enters the new Millennium satisfied but not over-confident. On
some issues Scots embrace change more readily than their leaders. On others
it is more resistant than some of them would like. Whatever the new
Millennium brings, one thing for sure is that devolution does not mean it
has become an easy place to govern.