PHILIP MORRIS TOBACCO COMPANY SEES . . . THE WRITING ON THE
TOMBSTONES

Once again the tobacco industry has demonstrated its uncanny ability
to tell which way the wind is blowing.

Philip Morris, the nation's largest tobacco company, announced this
week that it will consider letting the government regulate the
manufacture and marketing of cigarettes. This would be the same
company that recently argued before the U.S. Supreme Court against
government regulation of tobacco products.

Why the change of heart? Because regardless of the outcome of the case
before the Supreme Court, government regulation of tobacco is coming.
At issue is whether cigarettes and the nicotine they deliver should be
regulated by the Food and Drug Administration as a drug. Congress has
never expressly given the FDA that power, but the high court may
decide that the broad authority Congress gave the FDA includes power
over tobacco manufacture, distribution and use. If the court decides
against the FDA, then the issue would go to Congress, where support
for the tobacco industry is gradually waning.

Instead of being forced into new government oversight, the industry
wants to get out in front and appear to be the magnanimous public
citizen, offering to give up some of its commercial freedom for the
good of America's children. This would fit into its new public
relations campaign to delouse its corporate image.

The tobacco industry has used this tactic before -- heading off a ban
on TV advertising by proposing a voluntary ban, crafting a nationwide
settlement with state attorneys general tom stave off liability suits
and keep Congress from passing tobacco control legislation.
This time, Philip Morris Vice President Steven Parrish has offered to
``open up a dialogue'' about regulation. While President Clinton and
anti-tobacco activists welcomed the offer as a big step, it's nothing
more than an offer to chat.

What is the company willing to give? It's unlikely that any tobacco
firm would agree to let the FDA classify cigarettes as drug delivery
devices without a fight. More likely, it will propose some minor rules
about marketing to children or labeling and then trumpet them in a new
corporate ad campaign.

Parrish has promised to release details of his company's proposal
today when he debates former FDA chief David Kessler at a conference
in southern California. OK, we're listening.