MORE HEROIN ON THE WAY

The world's biggest opium poppy crop will be harvested in Afghanistan
next month, putting cheap and pure heroin on the streets of Western
cities.

Worried Australian law enforcement authorities are watching for signs
that part of that crop could be diverted to Australia as drug
syndicates make up the shortfall caused by drought in the Golden
Triangle area of Burma, Thailand and Laos.

The Australian Bureau of Criminal Intelligence said there was evidence
criminal gangs from Pakistan, Lebanon and Turkey were already trying
to feed Afghan heroin into the existing drug routes from the Golden
Triangle to Australia.

Federal agent Mick Keelty, the general manager of national operations
for the Australian Federal Police and the man who oversees its
anti-drug operations, told The Sunday Age the authorities were
concerned and were monitoring the importation of heroin to Australia
from the Golden Crescent (Afghanistan and Pakistan).

The United Nations Drug Control Program estimates the Afghan opium gum
harvest rose from 2100 tonnes in 1998 to 4600 tonnes last year, enough
opium to produce about 450 tonnes of heroin.

Afghanistan's increased production coincided with a drop in the Golden
Triangle's output from 2600 tonnes in 1997 to 1236 tonnes last year.

"The biggest fear we have in relation to heroin is should those
south-west Asian routes meet up with the traditional routes through
the southern provinces of China, then we will have a significantly
bigger heroin trafficking route to Australia," said Mr Keelty.

The Federal Police believe that if Golden Triangle production does
rise again this year and if production continues to soar in the Golden
Crescent, Australia could be targeted more aggressively by
traffickers.

The bureau says the volume of heroin coming from the Golden Crescent
appears to be increasing.

"In February 1999, the AFP seized 26 kilograms of heroin that had come
from the Golden Crescent," it said in a recent report.

"It is expected that this trend will continue as exporters intensify
their efforts to develop partnerships with distribution groups in Australia."

The bureau said it appeared that Pakistani traffickers lacked the
business acumen to develop long-term arrangements with Australian
heroin distribution networks. "Heroin manufacturers in Pakistan have a
surplus of product but without a reliable trafficking network in
Australia, Pakistani entrepreneurs seem to be shipping heroin to
Australia in anticipation of sales rather than on the basis of a
particular demand or any pre-arranged deal."

But the Federal Police have told the bureau that Lebanese and Turkish
criminal groups, which are also involved in drug trafficking from the
Golden Crescent, may be considering the possibility of larger heroin
importations into Australia from Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Muslim fundamentalists running Afghanistan have become pragmatic
about the extent to which their country has become hooked on the
proceeds of an industry that is offensive to Islamic law.

After 22 years of warfare, poppy production has replaced Afghanistan's
agricultural infrastructure, displaced wheat production in some areas
and become a crucial pillar of the economy.

The process has corrupted Afghan officials and led to increasing
levels of addiction in local populations and refugee camps.

Another Australian official involved in law enforcement said the
Afghan heroin industry was of enormous concern. "It's not driven by
demand, it's driven by climatic conditions. In Afghanistan what else
have they got? What else do they do to generate a dollar?"