HAIL, COLOMBIA: IS IT DRUGS - OR OIL?

AMHERST, Mass. In the biggest step-up in U.S. military aid to Latin
America since the Reagan era, the Clinton Administration is preparing
to provide Colombia with $1.6 billion in helicopters, communications
gear, combat training and other forms of assistance.

All this aid is supposed to strengthen Colombia's capacity to fight
narcotics traffickers and the leftist guerrillas who protect them.

But there is another, hidden objective to protect U.S. access to the
largest untapped pool of petroleum in the Western Hemisphere.

U.S. interest in Colombia's drug production is well known. Government
sources claim that Colombian traffickers supply as much as 90 percent
of the cocaine flowing into the United States, plus a large
proportion of the heroin sold in the eastern third of the country.

Far less known is Colombia's role in satisfying America's vast and
growing petroleum habit. According to the U.S. Department of Energy,
U.S. oil consumption rose by 15 percent between 1990 and 1999, from 17
to 19.5 million barrels per day.

During the same period, Colombia's oil production rose by about 78
percent. Most of the added amount goes to the United States, making
Columbia its seventh largest supplier.

U.S. strategic calculations are more concerned with the future.
Consumption is expected to rise by another 5 million barrels per day
over the next 20 years, and most of this oil will have to come from
foreign sources.

These quantities could easily be provided by the Persian Gulf
countries, especially such petro giants as Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

However, U.S. strategists are reluctant to increase America's
dependence on the unstable (and increasingly unfriendly) states of the
Middle East and so seek more accessible suppliers. This is where
Colombia and neighboring Venezuela enter the picture.

Although Colombia's current production is dwarfed by the petro giants,
the country is believed to possess 2.6 billion barrels of untapped
petroleum and perhaps 10 times this amount in reserves.

Venezuela is even more richly endowed, with 73 billion barrels in
proven reserves.

Since the Gulf War of 1991, U.S. leaders have moved to increase the
importance of Western Hemisphere sources for oil.

The White House noted in a May 1997 report on national security
policy, "We are undergoing a fundamental shift in our reliance on
imported oil away from the Middle East."

Noting that Venezuela is the number-one foreign supplier and that
"Venezuela and Colombia are each undertaking new oil production
ventures," the report called access to these supplies a "vital
interest" of the United States.

This has significant security implications. Once a source of oil is
designated a "vital interest," it becomes incumbent on Washington to
assure its long-term safety.

In calling for stepped-up aid to the Colombian military, U.S.
officials have stressed the need to go after leftist guerrillas said
to provide protection for drug traffickers.

Rarely mentioned, however, is the fact that the guerrillas are also
attacking U.S. oil interests in Colombia, especially pipelines.

In 1999, for example, the pipeline from the Cano Limon field
operated by U.S.-based Occidental Petroleum Co. and Royal Dutch/Shell
was bombed 79 times.

In fact, a key element of the guerrillas' stated program is to expel
foreign interests and use future oil profits to improve the lot of
Colombia's impoverished masses.

All this raises important questions about the aims of the aid program.
The $1.6 billion is described as a one-time, "emergency" measure,
intended to tip the scales on the narcotics battlefield in the
government's favor.

But it is very doubtful that this amount five times the size of
previous allotments will make a lasting difference, and additional
infusions of U.S. aid will be needed in the future.

When we add Colombian oil supplies to the strategic equation, we are
talking about a very extended future indeed.

Given the risk that this military aid package will lead to protracted
and ever-expanding involvement in Colombia's messy conflicts, it is
essential that the administration and the various pro-aid factions in
Congress be more forthcoming about America's long-term interests.

If increasing our dependence on Colombian oil means expanding our
involvement in that country's internal wars, we may be better off
looking elsewhere.