SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN DRUG TRAFFICKING AFTER U.S. BASE CLOSURE

FORMER HOWARD AIR FORCE BASE, Panama (AP) Buzzards are the only thing
taking off and landing these days on Howard Air Force Base's deserted runway.

Counternarcotics surveillance flights a key element of U.S. efforts to curb
the flow of cocaine and heroin from South America ceased last year, when
the base was turned over to Panama along with other Panama Canal operations.

That has alarmed some U.S. and Latin American officials, who argued that
the Pacific base is an irreplaceable weapon in the war on drugs.

Both U.S. authorities and drug experts say that in the long run, operations
launched to take the place of Howard will actually provide equal, if not
better coverage than what was in place before.

But it will take time for the new facilities to get fully up and running.
In the meantime, "This has opened up a new avenue for the Colombian
traffickers and their guerrilla allies to ship drugs," said Bruce Bagley,
professor of international studies at the University of Miami.

"There has been a major upsurge in small aircraft leaving Colombia and in
heroin and cocaine shipments leaving the country," he said.

Colombian Minister of Defense Luis Fernando Ramirez said in February that
since Howard's drug operations shut down last May, authorities have seen an
increase in drug trafficking flights out of the country, and the Pacific
has been left totally unprotected by radar.

Colombian officials hope to compensate in part with helicopters and
counter-drug training that would result from a proposed $1.6 billion U.S.
aid package now before Congress.

"Obviously, there's been some degradation of coverage, but confirming what
windows are left unlocked for the burglar is not a good idea," said Stephen
Lucas, a spokesman for the U.S. Southern Command, the warfighting command
with responsibility for Central and South America.

Lucas said once other airfields being used as replacements for Howard are
fully operational, that will change.

Gen. Charles Wilhelm, the ranking U.S. military officer for Latin America,
has testified that once all the new staging areas are ready, surveillance
will be 110 percent of what it was when Howard was the base of operations.

Panamanian officials, meanwhile, say Howard's closure hasn't had any effect
on drug-fighting efforts on the isthmus.

"What enables us to investigate the large drug-trafficking networks are the
civilian authorities who do this type of work," said anti-drug prosecutor
Rosendo Miranda. "Those authorities remain in the country and we maintain
the same levels and channels of communication with them."

The counterdrug operations at Howard Air Force Base which included 2,000
surveillance flights a year are now being carried out by U.S. Air Force
aircraft using what the Pentagon calls "forward operating locations" at
airfields on Curacao and Aruba in the Netherlands Antilles north of
Venezuela, and in Manta, Ecuador.

Officials also are negotiating for another location in an undisclosed
country in Central America. The three current airfields all have been
activated since Howard closed, but won't be operating at full capacity
until runway improvements are completed at Manta and airplane parking areas
are built on Curacao and Aruba, Lucas said.

Some of the funding for the Manta improvements is still tied up in
Congress, while negotiations are ongoing for the fourth location, Lucas said.

Eduardo Gamarra, director of the Latin American and Caribbean Center at
Florida International University, said while the airfields ultimately will
provide better coverage than Howard in the long run, they also could double
or triple the cost of the drug war.

"You basically had to construct these other bases, negotiate with three
countries, put in a lot of resources," he said.

Lucas says the airfields will, in fact, be much more economical to run than
Howard, a 5,290-acre complex that was "a small city in itself."

"The electric bill alone was $1 million a month," he said. Startup and
improvement costs for the current airstrips for fiscal years 2000 and 2001
are estimated at $122 million, and operating costs for all of them,
including the one still under negotiation, are anticipated to average $14
million to $18 million a year, Lucas said.

That is compared to the $75.8 million a year it cost to operate Howard in
its last full year, Lucas said.

Since the current airstrips began operating, there have been "significant
busts" both in the Caribbean and western Pacific, Lucas said. In addition,
the United States continues to run anti-drug flights out of Puerto Rico,
Guantanamo Bay, and Honduras.

"There's always what we call the balloon effect: When you squeeze one part
of the balloon, the traffickers go to another," he said. "Everything you do
they have a counteraction to it."