TRIAL DEAD IN WATER, CONSPIRACY THEORY BUOYANT

Five months before the Victorian Parliament is due to even vote on the
proposal, Labor's plan to set up five injecting facilities across
Melbourne looks dead in the water.

Independent Russell Savage intends to vote against it. Fellow
independent Craig Ingram is also considering voting against it.

If they vote no, Labor will need to win the Benalla byelection and the
support of the third independent, Susan Davies, to get the legislation
through the Lower House. Alternatively, Labor will have to win over
Liberal and National Party MPs.

The signs are not good. The Nationals are almost certain to oppose the
plan, while Liberal Leader, Denis Napthine, yesterday expressed
serious reservations, claiming the facilities could turn suburbs into
"drug capitals". All this before the proposed bill has even gone to
the Upper House where the conservatives have the numbers.

These developments are bad news for Steve Bracks. But they are also
not surprising. Savage signalled his opposition months ago, while
Ingram was always going to be a doubtful starter.

Furthermore, the Nationals were never likely to come on board, let
alone in the context of the Benalla by-election. This leaves the
Liberals, who are not about to do Labor any favors and embrace what
many of them regard as a politically-risky policy.

The widespread awareness of these political dynamics has led to
questioning of the Government's motives by Liberal cynics who claim
Labor always knew the proposal had little prospect of success.

According to these sceptics, Labor put up the idea so the Government
would be seen to be taking action to tackle the heroin death rate. The
theory goes that when the legislation is inevitably voted down, Labor
will blame the conservatives, and tell voters it should at least get
the political kudos for trying.

It is a fairly shabby take on the political process. But yesterday it
was not just the Liberals subscribing to it.

Nathan Sterling, the Open Family Foundation's chief executive,
questioned Labor's refusal to introduce the facilities by regulation -
an option discussed in the Penington report - given legislation was
likely to be blocked. "They are leaving themselves open to be accused
of having other agendas," Sterling said.

Neither the Liberals not Sterling have direct evidence to support
their suggestions, and, unsurprisingly, Labor vehemently rejects them.

John Thwaites said last night he had not given up on Ingram, while
Penington had previously reported back to the government that there
were some signs the Liberals could be won over. A week after the
release of his report, that now seems a futile hope.