DECLINE IN MURDERS REACHES SMALL TOWNS

High Point, N.C., has not had a drug-or gang-related murder in the
past 18 months, after a stunning surge in homicides in the years
before that.

In Natchez, Miss., the number of murders dropped to one in 1999, after
reaching a dozen a few years before.

And in Oceanside, Calif., where there were as many as 25 homicides as
recently as 1995, there were 7 last year.

These drops in murders are an important indication that the decline in
the nation's murder rate since 1991, long driven by decreases in
homicide in the big cities, is now starting to take hold in small
cities, suburbs and rural areas across the country.

This trend was underscored by the release on Sunday of the Federal
Bureau of Investigation's preliminary crime report for 1999, which
showed that while homicides dropped 2 percent in cities with a
population of half a million or more, they declined 10 percent in
cities of 100,000 to 250,000, 12 percent in cities of 50,000 to
100,000 people and 14 percent in communities of 10,000 to 25,000
people. Over all, in suburban counties, the number of murders fell 12
percent, and 14 percent in rural counties.

In fact, the smaller the community, the bigger the decrease in
murders, according to the F.B.I. study, known as the Uniform Crime
Report, which is based on figures supplied by police forces around the
country.

Just as in big cities, officials in these smaller communities
attribute the decline to a mix of factors, including their own
innovative programs, an improved economy and longer prison sentences.

In High Point, a city of 76,000, federal, state and local law
enforcement agencies, drawing on a program pioneered in Boston, worked
together to focus on drug dealers who had moved in from as far away as
Los Angeles and Mexico. In Natchez, an antebellum tourist town of
19,000, officials say a strategy of community policing and four new
officers financed by a Clinton administration program helped cut crime.

In Oceanside, a community of 160,000 just north of San Diego, the
waning of the crack cocaine epidemic, a healthy economy that reduced
unemployment and California's "three strikes and you're out"
sentencing laws all contributed to a reduction in crime, local
officials say.

The reason behind the trend, said Prof. Alfred Blumstein, a
criminologist at Carnegie Mellon University, is related to the reason
the murder rate first increased in the mid-1980's. It was the major
cities that were initially hit by crack cocaine, and then by the
infestation of semiautomatic handguns and gangs that accompanied the
crack epidemic, he said. The smaller cities and rural areas were
slower to become involved in the crack problem, and just as they
lagged behind in the growth of crime, "they are slower to come down,"
Professor Blumstein said.

In fact, some smaller cities and rural areas have been victims of the
success the larger cities had in suppressing crime. This led drug
dealers and gangs to move to the small communities.

"What we saw in North Carolina, as law enforcement picked up the
pressure in the big cities in the mid-1990's, was that the gangs
purposely moved out to smaller places," said Walter Holton, the United
States attorney for the Middle District of North Carolina, in Greensboro.

Mexican gangs arrived at the same time as an influx of Hispanic
families moving to North Carolina to work in the state's rapidly
expanding industries, disguising their illicit activities, Mr. Holton
said.

In addition, some gang members traveled back and forth from Los
Angeles to High Point, bringing drugs to sell. "They infiltrated the
local market, becoming the major suppliers, and in the process used
violence for intimidation to take over the city," Mr. Holton added.

But while the sharp decline in homicide in smaller communities now is
seen as a positive sign, several experts said they were concerned that
the slowing of the decrease in murder in big cities could mean the
country is nearing the end of the remarkable fall in murder after
eight consecutive years. "The big cities are signaling the end of the
downturn is near," said James Allen Fox, Lipmann professor of criminal
justice at Northeastern University.

Professor Blumstein has calculated that with the huge reduction in
murder in the past few years, "If the trend continued, we would have a
negative homicide rate, and that would occur in 2007."

Equally worrisome, the experts said, several big cities actually had
increases in murder in 1999 for the first time since 1991, including
San Diego, up 35.7 percent, St. Louis, up 15 percent, Phoenix, up 14.6
percent, Milwaukee, up 11.7 percent, and New York, up 6 percent.

"We have been getting at the easy problems, so now that we've gotten
the easy gains, there should be a flattening out" in the overall
decline, Professor Blumstein said. Among these gains, he said, were a
shrinkage in the crack market and successful police tactics aimed at
persuading young people not to carry guns.