CRIME BATTLE CAN BE FOUGHT SMARTER

Most of us use the same tried-and-true method for determining what's wrong
when things go badly. It's called trial and error. We try different tactics
and tools until we find a combination that works.

The deductive process gets harder, though, when things are going well.

Then there are conflicting explanations, and the only way to separate the
crucial from the extraneous is by changing ingredients, one by one, until
things go badly.

Such is the dilemma facing the nation as it regards its efforts to combat
crime. Something, or more likely, some combination of things, is causing
one of the great national success stories of the modern era. For eight
years now, beginning in 1992, the country has seen a steady decrease in
crime as reported by local police to the FBI. And the newest totals, for
1999, reflect an emphatic decrease of 7 percent.

The trend is across the board, encompassing all categories of crime, all
regions of the country, and all settings - from rural to suburban to big
cities. The violent crimes of murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault
all were down a combined 7 percent. So were property crimes, with
burglaries alone down 11 percent.

So what's really going on here?

Here are some factors worth considering:

Baby Boomers have aged out of their crime-prone years after creating
statistical havoc during the late 1960s. A booming economy has replaced
desperation with opportunity in many quarters. The competitive,
ultra-violent crack cocaine epidemic of the 1980s has settled into a
business-as-usual black market in which sellers and their territories have
been established. Smarter policing strategies are paying off, mainly by
preventing crimes before they occur.

And one more factor: Get-tough policies such as mandatory minimum
sentences, along with a prison-building boom that has let courts put a
mind-boggling 2 million offenders behind bars, are having an effect.

But this last, brutal factor is one that needs to be experimented with.
Alternatives must be found - court supervision, drug treatment, employment
training - to jailing nearly 1 percent of the population.

The battle against crime is going well. That doesn't mean it can't be
fought smarter - and more fairly.