LAST RIPPLE OF A SHOCK VOTER TURN

THE Benalla by-election was the last ripple from the shockwave of the
Kennett government's defeat last October.

Labor's victory -- with the support of three Independents -- led to former
Premier and Liberal leader Jeff Kennett quitting politics, followed by his
deputy and former National Party leader Pat McNamara five months later.

Mr McNamara and the Nationals' hierarchy had watched in despair as three
Independents -- Craig Ingram, Russell Savage and Susan Davies -- were
elected in rural seats.

Their despair deepened when two subsequent by-elections in Frankston East
and Burwood saw Liberal candidates defeated and the Bracks Labor Government
firmly installed.

If Burwood, a blue-ribbon seat formerly held by Mr Kennett and never held
by Labor, could crash, what could happen to Benalla?

Like Burwood, Benalla had never been held by Labor, but the rural
electorate was turning on the Coalition.

The seat had swung against the Nationals by almost 13 per cent since 1996.
At last year's election, Labor peeled off 7.8 per cent from the National
vote. If that was repeated at a by-election, Labor would make history.

The Nationals' new leader, Peter Ryan, Mr McNamara and senior party
officials worked out a strategy.

Mr McNamara would not retire from Parliament until a suitable replacement
was found and Victorians' fondness of Labor waned.

But local Independent Bill Hill, who had stood and won 16 per cent of the
vote at the 1996 election, had all but decided to stand again and was
refusing to rule out again sending his preferences to Labor.

The Liberals were also threatening to run a candidate.

And there were early signs that new Premier Steve Bracks was becoming more
popular in rural electorates.

The ALP's new state secretary and senior party strategist, David Feney, was
confident Labor could win the by-election and Denise Allen, who had stood
against Mr McNamara at the last election, was expected to run again.

The Nationals' mood did not improve until several weeks into the new year
when they had found a potential candidate -- Bill Sykes, a former Fitzroy
footballer.

Labor timed the by-election to cash in on its first Budget, which had a
strong rural edge and came days after the campaign began.

With every charge of pork-barrelling, Labor simply countered by saying it
was addressing needs created by the previous government.

Labor maintained its successful state election theme -- that the Nationals
had turned on the country.

The Nationals' advertising seized on the debate surrounding the
establishment of legalised heroin injecting facilities to bluntly suggest a
vote for Labor was a vote for shooting galleries.

Mr Ryan went on television to accuse Ms Allen of having 20 jobs in 30 years
and having been on the dole when she claimed she took a sabbatical in 1998.

How much the campaign influenced last night's result is unknown, but by the
end of the week it was obvious the preferences of the three Independents
and the Green and the Australian Reform party candidates would decide the
poll.

Private party polling was showing Labor and the Nationals neck-and-neck in
the mid-30s and the other candidates and "don't knows" taking the rest.