ECUADOR FEARS REFUGEE INFLUX FROM ANTI-DRUG WAR

Farmers may head south after Colombia coco crop destruction

WASHINGTON -- Ecuador's foreign minister thinks thousands of Colombian
farmers might seek refuge in his country because of plans to eradicate coca
crops in southern Colombia.

Heinz Moeller said in an interview that the United Nations high commissioner
for refugees has warned Ecuador to prepare for the arrival of 25,000 to
30,000 Colombian peasants, who may flee the aerial spraying of herbicide.

The destruction of coca crops in Putumayo state, which borders northeastern
Ecuador, is a priority of the proposed $1.3 billion U.S. aid package for
Colombia.

Says Moeller: ``This warning from the United Nations makes it painfully
clear what is about to hit us.''

What would the flood of refugees mean to Ecuador? ``Draw your own
conclusions,'' Moeller said. ``These people obviously have knowledge and
experience in coca cultivation, so its highly probable that they will grow
coca in Ecuador.''

A U.S. State Department official said that while it is probable that some
peasants will cross into Ecuador, many more are likely to be displaced
inside Colombia. The U.S. aid package has provisions to help 10,000
internally displaced refugees.

Moeller also pointed out that there can be no guarantee that members, or
even whole units, of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the
country's main guerrilla group, would not enter his country among the
refugees.

Nine armed and uniformed Colombians appearing to be FARC guerrillas were
recently captured in Ecuador.

``Although their leader claimed to be a dissident, they looked like a carbon
copy of a FARC unit. They have said that they dont want to internationalize
the conflict, but all the same, Ecuador is seeing an increase in the
loathsome practice of kidnapping for ransom, which could indicate a FARC
presence,'' Moeller said.

FARC, he adds, is now claiming to have established a clandestine political
organization, called the Bolivarian Movement in honor of South American
independence hero Simon Bolivar. That could mean FARC's expansion to
neighboring countries, he said.

``We dont want anything to do with the internal Colombian conflict, other
than to see a negotiated peace,'' said Moeller. ``But if we are left with no
alternative, we will have to confront them militarily.''

He said he fears that the weak social and economic condition in his own
country could be worsened by the attempt to wipe out Colombia's coca
production. ``Look at what happened in Bolivia and Peru when they eradicated
coca there. Where did they move production? To Colombia.''

In Moeller's view other countries bordering Colombia, for example Peru,
would be less affected than Ecuador because they have reinforced their
borders and have more military resources.

``Our forces developed jungle-fighting capabilities during the conflict on
the Cenepa [a now-settled border conflict with Peru]. Were sure we could
fight successfully on the Colombian border as well, but I detest the idea of
having to maintain a kind of war against this threat,'' the minister said.

Moeller said that in recent meetings in Washington with Peter Romero, U.S.
undersecretary of state for Andean affairs, he emphasized the urgent need to
aid social and economic development plans in Ecuador's northeastern province
of Sucumbios. The effort would require an initial investment of between $150
million and $250 million from the United States and the international
community and would be designed to raise the standard of living in the
border area.

Better living conditions in the province, Moeller said, would discourage
both coca cultivation and support for the FARC.

For several years U.S. authorities fighting the drug war, especially Drug
Enforcement Agency officials, have sought the use of the civilian and
military airfield in Manta, Ecuador. The base is now being enlarged and
equipped for electronic intelligence operations designed to identify the
routes used by narcotics traffickers, Moeller said.

Still, Moeller drew a distinction. U.S. aid for Colombia and the base at
Manta are two different issues.

``I want to emphasize that the agreement we have with the United States
rules out any interdiction or interception of narcotics. There will be no
military operations, no arms on board. In addition, any operation will
require the permission of the country within which it is contemplated.

``I can tell you straight out that we are not worried about the consequences
of our involvement in the struggle against narcotics production and
trafficking. Doesnt it help us as a country too, to avoid the terrible
tragedy that our sister republic Colombia is suffering?''