COLOMBIAN WAR WILL ESCALATE

WASHINGTON -- A warning for those hoping for a quick turnaround in
Colombia's civil war following this week's tentative U.S. congressional
approval of $1.3 billion in ``counter-narcotics'' military aid for that
country: Things may get worse before they get better.

There is a consensus in U.S. foreign policy circles that the U.S. aid
package agreed to in principle by a House and Senate conference committee
last week will give a much-needed psychological boost to Colombian President
Andres Pastrana. His popularity has sunk since he gave large chunks of
Colombia's territory to drug-financed Marxist guerrillas without getting
much in return.

But U.S. officials and congressional sources warn against hopes that the
U.S. aid package will have an immediate effect on Colombia's drug
production, which accounts for 80 percent of the cocaine consumed in the
United States. Moreover, there are few expectations the aid package will in
the short-term help Colombia's poorly-equipped government forces' battle
against the Marxist rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
(FARC).

NO SHORT-TERM FIX

It will take up to two years for U.S.-made Blackhawk and Huey helicopters,
the key military component of the U.S. package, to arrive in Colombia and be
ready for combat. The Blackhawks alone will take between 14 and 20 months to
be built and sent to Colombia, and the training of their pilots will take
another seven months.

While the House and Senate agreed on the $1.3 billion price tag, lawmakers
are still fighting over whether to send the lightweight and low-cost Huey
helicopters, or the costlier and longer range Blackhawk.

Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., is pushing for the Blackhawks, which would
be built by Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. in his own state, while the Texas
congressional delegation wants the Hueys, which -- surprise, surprise --
would be built by the Texas-based Bell Textron. A combination of about 18
Blackhawks and 30 Hueys is expected to be agreed on before mid-July.

``With the certainty that the equipment is coming, the Colombians can take
some risks and be more aggressive in the field,'' says Gabriel Marcella, a
professor at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, Penn.

ATTACKS MAY INCREASE

But the FARC rebels can be expected to use the two-year delay to step up
their military offensive against the government, in an effort to strengthen
their position at the negotiating table, congressional sources say.

The guerrillas are likely to split up into smaller units, or increasingly
resort to terrorist acts, such as car bombs, to impose new concessions from
the government.

They may also target some of the estimated 200 rotating U.S. military
trainers stationed in Colombia, or try to bring down a U.S.-made helicopter,
to draw world attention on what they describe as a massive U.S. military
escalation in Colombia. U.S. officials say the aid package will help
Colombian government forces fight drug traffickers.

In addition, the gradual arrival of U.S. helicopters is likely to push the
FARC rebels further into neighboring countries. The Colombian rebels are
known to already have a presence across the border in Ecuador, Panama and
Venezuela.

There is little question that the U.S. aid package will help Colombia get
back on its feet in the long run. But over the next two years, it's going to
get ugly.