OK LIKELY ON $1.3B DRUG WAR

US Sees Aid To Colombia Lasting At Least 5 Years

WASHINGTON - White House officials acknowledged yesterday that a $1.3
billion package of antidrug aid to Colombia that cleared the House last
night is just the first step toward a relationship that will last at least
five years.

The House overwhelmingly approved the two-year aid measure by a 306-110
vote and the Senate is expected to approve it today.

In interviews and in congressional testimony, Clinton administration
officials said they expect the US role in fighting the cultivation and
production of drugs will last at least through 2005.

While strongly disputing frequent warnings from opponents that the
Colombian aid package could be the start of a Vietnam-like quagmire and the
eventual deployment of US troops, administration officials said the
Colombia drug battle includes a great amount of uncertainty.

''Nobody kids themselves that this is going to be done in three or four
years,'' said one US official involved in the planning of Colombia
assistance, speaking on condition of anonymity. ''If things go on track, we
should see tangible results in two to three years, but as far as completely
wiping it out, there are too many factors for hitting a deadline.''

In House and Senate debate, the issue of long-term US involvement in a
South American civil war was pushed to the background. US officials, unless
pressed, attempted to keep the debate focused on this year and 2001.

In the Senate last week, only Senator Slade Gorton, a Washington
Republican, questioned whether there was an ''exit strategy'' to the
Colombian involvement.

''It will not be a one-time appropriation,'' he said. ''It isn't a down
payment we make on a home or an automobile. It is a down payment on which
we don't know the schedule of future payment; we don't know the total
amount of future payments; we don't know how we will measure success if,
indeed, any success exists.''

But US officials say there is a measuring-stick set by the Colombians in
their blueprint to battle drugs. In five years, according to the $7.5
billion plan, the government hopes to cut drug pruduction by 50 percent.
Colombia produces or ships 90 percent of the cocaine and up to 75 percent
of the heroin that enters the United States. Cocaine production more than
doubled in Colombia from 1995 to 1999, while Peru achieved a 66 percent
drop and Bolivia a 55 percent drop in coca leaf cultivation during those years.

It is that drop in production in Peru and Bolivia that gives US officials
confidence that Colombia's illicit crop can be substantially reduced,
despite up to 40 percent of the California-size country not being under
government control.

In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee on March 23, General
Charles E. Wilhelm, commander in chief of the US Southern Command, said US
officials had put together a six-year counternarcotics plan.

The first two years, he said, would be concentrated in the southern
provinces of Putumayo and Caqueta, ruled by guerrillas and
narco-traffickers; the middle two years would be in the Meta and Guaviare
provinces to the east, a mix of guerrilla and paramilitary units; and the
last two years would move to the Norte de Santander province, much of which
is controlled by paramilitary forces.

But, in essence, that broad plan became obsolete in May, when the Colombian
police conducted a massive spraying operation of coca plants in Norte de
Santander.

Even if the plan completely changes, the US military hardware being sent to
Colombia ensures up to five years of commitment, according to testimony
given by Barry R. McCaffrey, director of the White House Office of National
Drug Control.

Asked by congressional leaders about training pilots and support crew for
new Blackhawk helicopters, which cost $6 million each, McCaffrey said, ''It
takes 18 months to get a Blackhawk pilot. It takes 10 months to build the
plane. It takes two to five years to put together a credible system....
We'll be working at it for a long time.''

Thomas J. Umberg, McCaffrey's former head of drug supply reduction and now
a Washington lawyer, said his office had put together a five-year plan for
Colombia. He said that after the first two years, ''the plan emphasis
changed from heavy military to a much more robust alternative development
program.''

He said it involved moving many southern Colombia farmers growing coca
leaves into other parts of the country because ''that region doesn't lend
itself to alternative development. It doesn't have the roads. This effort
in Colombia won't be over in a couple of years, but there should be
significant progress in a couple of years.''

Others aren't so sure.

''With this strategy, our involvement is pretty much forever,'' said Adam
Isacson, an analyst at the Center for International Policy, a Washington
think tank. ''It's a cat-and-mouse game. The growers will go from one area
to the next. ''