PANEL SEES DANGER AHEAD FOR AMERICA

Domestic Threats Seen Likely To Increase

Over the next 25 years the U.S. will increasingly become less secure
domestically against a range of terrorist attacks, forcing people to expand
their "concept of national security" while testing individual political
values, according to a report authored by the U.S. Commission on National
Security/21st Century.

The commission, headed by former senators Gary Hart and Warren B. Rudman
and staffed by business, academic and former military leaders, is currently
studying the issue of national security in preparation of a three-part
report to be completed by April 2001. Of their most significant findings,
the panel believes that "America will become increasingly vulnerable to
hostile attack on our homeland, and our military superiority will not
entirely protect us" over the next quarter century.

The first report, entitled, " New World Coming: American Security in the
21st Century," concluded that the U.S. will remain "both absolutely and
relatively stronger than any other state or combination of states."
However, the panel said "emerging powers -- either singly or in coalition
-- will increasingly constrain U.S. options regionally and limit its
strategic influence." Consequently, the commission believes "(the U.S.)
will remain limited in our ability to impose our will, and we will be
vulnerable to an increasing range of threats against American forces and
citizens overseas as well as at home."

"States, terrorists, and other disaffected groups," the report said, "will
acquire weapons of mass destruction and mass disruption, and some will use
them. Americans will likely die on American soil, possibly in large
numbers." The commission also believes "rapid advances in information and
biotechnologies" will also "create new vulnerabilities for U.S. security."
And, the panel said, advances in communications and information technology
will make national borders "more porous; some will bend and some will break."

The notion that American citizens will someday be subjected to varying
forms of terrorism on their own turf is garnering increasing concern from
military and political leaders as well. In February, Defense Secretary
William Cohen even told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Americans
might have to surrender some civil rights in order to gain more security in
the fight against domestic terrorism.

"We need greater intelligence and that means not only foreign-gathered
intelligence but here at home," Cohen said. "That is going to put us on a
collision course with rights of privacy. And it's something that
democracies have got to come to grips with -- how much are we going to
demand of our intelligence agencies and how much are we willing to give up
in the way of intrusion into our lives? That is a tradeoff that is going to
have to come."

Already lawmakers are considering legislation that would enhance the use of
military forces in domestic law enforcement capacities. The FY 2000 Defense
Authorization Bill, already passed by the House, includes provisions that
would provide local law enforcement agencies increased access to military
assets without necessarily having to compensate the Pentagon for their use.

But critics have dismissed the idea as a blatant violation of the Posse
Comitatus Act -- which prevents U.S. military forces from engaging in most
domestic law enforcement activities -- as well as a recipe to invite more
military involvement from civil authorities no longer concerned about
"paying the government back."

Greg Nojeim, Washington legislative counsel for the ACLU, said, "The
defense authorization bill promises more military involvement in civilian
law enforcement at virtually the same time Congress is investigating the
role of the military units at Waco."

"We're particularly concerned that the bill effectively removes any
requirement that military units be relied on only in an emergency," he added.

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner, R-Va., denied that,
saying, "There is no Posse Comitatus exception contained in this provision.
The fact is this provision specifically prohibits military personnel from
engaging in 'search, seizure, arrest or similar activity.'"

Nevertheless, the panel's belief that more domestic terrorism will hit the
U.S. over the next quarter century is a theme popular in the nation's
capitol, and the most dangerous aspect of the report, others say, is that
it will only serve to reinforce the notion among lawmakers that decreasing
civil liberties to enhance security is the only viable solution.

The report -- the panel's second of four planned reports -- was released
September 20 and provided supporting research and analysis of the
commission's earlier predictions that the U.S. will eventually be attacked
domestically, "the survival and security of the United States" remains a
priority among national leaders.

The 151-page report also discusses the nature of global economics -- a
contributing factor to potential unrest -- and how peoples and nations will
be governed over the next quarter-century. The panel believes more
"international and improved regulatory regimes" in the future may translate
"into less capacity for states to manipulate national economic policy." The
report said "ties that bind individual or group loyalty to a state can
change and even unravel, and the next 25 years portend a good deal of
unraveling."

"In all cases," the commission said, "the changes ahead have the potential
to undermine the authority of states." Some experts cited by the panel,
such as Wolfgang H. Reinicke, suggest that the principle of state
sovereignty itself, "and the state system, is wasting away."

But the panel countered this view with supporting commentary from other
experts who see inherent danger in losing sovereignty. In any case, the
commission believes state sovereignty will survive the "next 25 years, and
probably long after."