FROM VIETNAM TO COLOMBIA

What experience and history teach is this — that people and governments
never have learned anything from history, or acted on principles deduced
from it.

Hegel, Philosophy of History

History does not repeat itself.

What a relief.

Consider what it might be like if it did. In 1961 a White Paper was issued
by the government that argued for an increase in military, technical and
economic aid to South Vietnam, and the introduction of a large number of
American advisers to help stabilize Ngo Dinh Diem and his government. He
remained stabilized until assassinated in 1963 and his government remained
stabilized until it fell to the Communists in 1975.

One of the weapons of choice during the stable period was Agent Orange, a
defoliant that had the intended effect on foliage and an unintended effect
on the people who were exposed to it. More than 30 years after it was last
used, thousands of American military personnel and Vienamese continue to
suffer from its effects.

Congress has just passed and the president has just signed a bill giving
Colombia $1.7 billion in military aid. Colombian army personnel will be
trained in the United States so that they can more effectively fight the
drug traffickers that supply United States citizens and other people around
the world with cocaine.

As in Vietnam, our support is going to help that country's incumbent
president. As in Vietnam, the president we are supporting may not be
president very long. Of course, since we can't see into the future we can't
be sure of that. What we do know is that Andres Pastrana's career has
spiraled downward.

Elected in 1998 with the highest vote total of any candidate in Colombian
history, his standing with his people has fallen steadily due in part to his
inability to control the guerrillas who support the drug trade.

A Gallup poll taken at the end of June shows that his approval rating has
dropped to 21 per cent. Semana, Colombia's leading news magazine, has
described the political situation as a "crisis of governability without
precedent." In addition to Mr. Pastrana's lack of success in dealing with
the rebels, his own administration has been charged with corruption by the
opposition Liberal Party. The allegations it makes against Mr. Pastrana's
party are that improper donations were made to his campaign by a dredging
company involving members of Mr. Pastrana's cabinet and staff.

All that does not, of course, mean that what is happening in Colombia has
any parallel to what happened in Vietnam. One very big difference is that we
won't use Agent Orange in Colombia. We may, however, use Fusarium fungus, a
powerful biological herbicide, in massive amounts. No one need worry about
the effect of this fungus on humans.

For one thing, we have not even decided yet to use it. For another, if we do
use it the government has advised us that it is perfectly safe for humans.
According to officials, Fusarium is a naturally occurring fungus with
variants that can cause wilt in everything from tomatoes and grain to
marijuana.

It should not, however, cause humans to wilt. It was first identified in the
1980s by CIA scientists as a possible weapon in the drug fight.

If it works as hoped, it would be a powerful biological herbicide against
the coca and heroin-poppy fields that are spreading almost unchecked across
the Colombian countryside. Both the United States and the former Soviet
Union have been developing the Fusarium fungus.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States paid for continued
research at the Russian laboratory.

Environmentalists are distressed about the possible field test of the
fungus. They argue that it is a biological weapon that might upset
Colombia's ecology or endanger farmers, animals and food crops. Similar
concerns caused Florida to abandon plans to use a variant of Fusarium on
marijuana fields.

One unidentified United States intelligence official who doesn't understand
how helpful the herbicide may be said: "I don't support using a product on a
bunch of Colombian peasants that you wouldn't use against a bunch of
rednecks growing marijuana in Kentucky. And there is definitely less than
unanimous support for this in Colombia." The official and environmentalists
don't know what they are talking about.

Scientists who support the program know what they are talking about.

Eric Rosenquist, a program leader for international programs at
theAgriculture Department's Research Service in Beltsville, Md. says of the
environmentalists'concerns: "I don't see this as some horrible thing that's
going to mutate and kill people — that's science fiction. But you have to
demonstrate that it is going to be effective, and that hasn't been done
yet." Jonathan Gressel, a professor of plant sciences at the Weizmann
Institute of Science in Rehjovot, Israel is similarly dismissive of concerns
about the fungus. "If they're looking at local strains of the fungus, then I
can't see something scientifically dangerous about it. What you're doing is
taking a disease that is already present and putting on more of it."

Lawyers in the White House are worried that use of the fungal herbicide on
drug crops may violate the international conventions against the spread of
biological weapons.

Their solution is clever, as one would expect from lawyers.

They say the conventions will not be violated if a foreign country (such as
Colombia) makes its own decision to use or test the fungus.

People in the United States who don't know that history never repeats itself
might be worried about what we are planning for Colombia. People in Colombia
might also be worried about what our government is planning for them — for
good reason.