PRISON POPULATION GROWTH RATE SLOWS

The crime rate is falling and prison population is growing.

Is there a connection?

It appears so. And if it's true, a third statistic may indicate that we're
reaching a point where the crime rate and prison population level off and
become stable.

The third statistic is the rate of prison population growth. It's still
growing, but it's slowing down from previous years. In fact, if the slowing
process continues, the prison population could conceivably become static,
along with the crime rate.

Even if that eventually happens, the numbers won't be pretty.

At the middle of last year, prisons and jails held 1,860,520 adults,
according to a Bureau of Justice Statistics report. With an increase of
60,000 prisoners over the previous year, the United States may have matched
or even surpassed Russia as the country with the highest rate of incarceration.

The growth rate of state and federal prison populations slowed to 4.4
percent in 1999, the lowest since the 2.3 percent growth in 1979. Much of
the decline was at the state level, since the growth rate for federal
prisons actually increased to 9.6 percent last year from 7.9 percent in 1998.

The U.S. prison population has grown steadily for more than a
quarter-century, helped by increased drug prosecutions and tougher policies
against all offenders. If the current growth continues, the total prison
and jail population would likely hit 2 million in the second half of 2001.

Viewing the latest figures in light of the current U.S. population, one of
every 147 residents was an inmate in an adult jail or prison at the middle
of last year.

Last year's U.S. total included more than 1.1 million state prisoners,
about 606,000 men and women in local jails, and about 118,000 federal
inmates. Prisons and jails held fewer than 800,000 people in 1985.

Crime rates have been declining since 1993, but longer sentences,
especially for drug crimes during the 1980s and for violent crimes in the
1990s, have driven prisoner populations. More mandatory minimum sentences
and less generous parole have also contributed to the increase. The
prisoner population last declined in 1972.

Does the slowdown rate of prison population growth, coupled with a
declining crime rate, mean that a "stable" level of both crime and prison
population is possible?

It's vital that Louisiana officials keep careful tabs on this crime-prison
population growth rate pattern.

Last year, Louisiana had the highest total incarceration rate of any of the
50 states, with more than 1 percent of the state's population imprisoned.

That means Louisiana has a big stake in keeping up with the numbers - and
making sound decisions based upon them.