GETTING HIGHER IN HIGH SCHOOL

The Fall And Rise Of Toking Teens

It's something of a puzzle. In the past two decades, marijuana use by
U.S. adolescents has twice changed direction, first falling
precipitously for a number of years, then rising dramatically in the
1990s. In a new National Bureau of Economic Research study, Rosalie L.
Pacula and five fellow researchers point a finger at two factors which
account for this seesaw pattern.

"The answers to the mystery of the decline and subsequent rise in
marijuana use by youngsters lie in their changing views about its
harmful effects and in the dramatic shifts in the price of the
substance," says economist Michael Grossman, one of the study's
authors.

The study draws on data from annual nationwide surveys of
representative samples of students. From 1981 to 1992, the percent of
high school seniors who reported using marijuana in the previous 30
days and 12 months fell from 32% and 46% respectively, to just 12% and
22%. After 1992, however, the trend reversed, and by 1998, 23% of
seniors reported using pot in the previous 30 days and 38% in the
previous year.

Significantly, the turnaround parallels students' changing perceptions
of the risks involved in marijuana use. In the earlier period, report
the authors, the youths assessed the potential harmful effects as
relatively large. In the '90s, however, they tended to downplay them.
Not coincidentally, media campaigns about the dangers of marijuana were
far more common in the '80s than the '90s.

The other major culprit behind the recent surge in pot consumption
appears to be falling prices. In the 1980s, report the researchers,
the inflation-adjusted street price of an ounce of marijuana more than
tripled, while potency fell by 22%, which means that the real "quality-
adjusted" price rose even more. From 1992 to 1998, however, the price
fell by 16%, while potency increased by a startling 53%, translating
into a hefty quality-adjusted price cut of 45%.