Perspective: TALKING TOUGH

Candidates Are Making It a Top Election Issue, Even Though There Is
Little Data to Suggest Crime -- or Our Fear of It -- Is Actually Rising

JENNIFER Smith woke up one morning this summer to find her family's
Astro van had vanished from her Silver Heights driveway. As annoying
- -- and unnerving -- as it was, even she says her tale is so
run-of-the-mill it's become a Winnipeg stereotype.

"It seems to be getting worse," said Smith, a young stay-at-home
mother. "Everyone I know has had their car, their garage broken into
lately. It's like a constant. A lot of people don't report it because
it's not worth the hassle, but it is happening."

The fears and frustrations of Winnipeggers like Smith have led Mayor
Sam Katz and the vast majority of city council candidates to place
crime reduction and prevention among their top campaign priorities
during this civic election.

Suburban candidates especially are demanding their fair share of
police officers to tackle what they declare to be an epidemic of
costly property crimes -- vandalism, car thefts, break-ins, graffiti.

Inner-city candidates highlight nastier violent offences like gang
activity, crack houses and assaults.

"I was on Inkster and I ended up talking to three neighbours for
about 45 minutes and it was all about crime," said Tim Bednarski, who
is running for a second time in Point Douglas. "They were afraid to
come out of their homes because of these gangsters. I wouldn't have
thought it would be that bad up there, but it's a sad state."

The way the candidates have been talking for the last two months,
Winnipeg has become a dangerous city where law-abiding citizens fear
to walk the streets.

In reality, the city is no more dangerous today than it was six years ago.

While crime is certainly a problem -- Winnipeg is No. 1 among
Canadian cities for per-capita car theft and No. 2 for per-capita
homicide -- police statistics suggest the overall incidence of crime
has not risen since 2000.

According to the Winnipeg Police Service, the number of assaults
reported in Winnipeg declined to 6,088 in 2005 from 6,676 in 2000,
while reported break-and-enters declined to 7,202 from 7,951 over the
same period.

The number of robberies reported in Winnipeg increased to 1,836 in
2005 from 1,694 in 2000, but fluctuated by hundreds from year to
year, denying analysts the opportunity to divine a trend from the data.

Sexual assault cases, meanwhile, increased to 672 from 566, but
researchers don't hold much stock in the reported incidence of rape,
a crime that goes consistently under-reported, given the fact it's
usually committed by close acquaintances.

Homicides also increased to 25 from 16, but changes from year to year
appear to be random. Statistically, the overall incidence of the most
severe of all crimes is too low in comparison to Winnipeg's
population for annual changes to be considered significant.

According to Winnipeg Police Service data, only car theft clearly
skyrocketed between 2000 and 2005, climbing to 11,840 from 9,464.

Based on this data, Statistics Canada has stated one in every 58
Winnipeggers was a victim of car theft in 2005 -- and that's every
single Winnipegger, not just Winnipeg drivers.

"In Winnipeg, the prospect of car theft is very real and people
should be very concerned with ways to reduce it," said criminologist
Rick Linden, a University of Manitoba sociology professor. "But the
overall (crime) numbers are not increasing -- not nationally, not locally."

Linden also believes that the fear of crime -- the campaign
bread-and-butter for civic election candidates -- may be nothing more
than a political bugaboo. Long-term studies conducted by researchers
in his department suggest the fear of crime has actually been
decreasing in Winnipeg since the mid-1980s.

According to surveys of Winnipeg adults conducted in 1984, 1994 and
2004, the fear of being a victim of four specific crimes -- assault,
break and enter, sexual assault and theft -- has receded slightly
over the past two decades, thanks to new analysis by recent masters
graduate Kristin Clarke (please see sidebar).

The same longitudinal research suggests the fear of fraud has
increased, which makes sense considering increased opportunities for
computer-assisted credit-card and identity theft in the Internet era.

In other words, there is little hard data to suggest either incidence
of crime or the fear of crime is actually rising in Winnipeg. We have
every right to be concerned about crime -- especially car theft and
homicide -- but our concerns are really no different today than they
were decades ago, Linden said.

"I've been teaching criminology for more than 30 years, and I don't
remember a time when people put their feet up and said, 'Well, we
have the problem licked,' " he said.

"If you go back 10 years, you'll see similar stories about crime and
similar fears of crime... the only difference is that we're now
living in what some criminologists call a 'risk-averse society.'
"People drive their kids to school because they're afraid of what
might happen on the streets, even though the streets are no less safe
than they were years ago."

Mayor Sam Katz, who increased the number of police on Winnipeg's
streets and introduced a street-crime task force during his short
first term in office, rejects the notion that crime has flatlined.

In an interview last week, he called that as a "totally inaccurate"
idea that could only be espoused by someone who doesn't actually
speak to Winnipeggers.

"You know what? Go talk to someone who lives around Central Park and
ask them if crime is a major issue. Go talk to someone in the North
End and see what they say. Go talk to someone in the Broadway area or
the inner city and ask them if crime is an issue. Crime is a major
issue," said Katz.

But the mayor conceded public fears may be on the rise as the result
of an increased awareness of crime, thanks to the near-instantaneous
quality of modern electronic media. Katz, like many civic election
candidates, wants to put even more police on the streets to allay those fears.

Criminologist Linden, however, said putting more police officers in
uniform does not actually prevent crime. It's a popular yet cosmetic
political pledge, he suggests.

And Winnipeg already has its fair share of officers.

According to a Statistics Canada report released late last year,
Winnipeg has more officers per capita than almost every other major
city, including Toronto.

There is no way the city could ever afford to hire enough police to
keep the streets free of people determined to commit crimes, said
Linden, adding effective crime-prevention policies tend to be more
complex. Winnipeggers should ask their candidates what policies they
propose to prevent crimes from occurring, said Linden, who sits on
the city's car-theft prevention task force. He said he has yet to
hear a single good crime-prevention suggestion during the current
civic election.

There is, however, some focus on the root causes of crime in this
election, which Katz and others agree are poverty and a lack of both
educational and economic opportunities.

Addressing the economic disparities that divide the comfortable and
poor in Winnipeg is likely beyond the ability of any single
politician and will require long-term solutions, Katz said.

In the meantime, here are a few of the solutions politicians are
touting on the streets this election campaign:

HOW TO COMBAT CRIME

Solutions From Council and Mayoral Candidates

* River Heights candidate Brenda Leipsic says police officers are
bogged down in paperwork and hampered by old computers and equipment.
She wants to make sure police officers are freed up to be deployed
quickly to all parts of the city so residents don't have to wait
hours or days for an officer to respond to non-emergency calls. She's
also concerned that it's difficult to recruit enough officers.

* Grant Nordman, the business candidate in St. Charles, wants to
explore one-officer cruiser cars instead of two, which the police
union favours for safety reasons. He also says the city should hire
more officers and make sure the suburbs have sufficient coverage.

* Daniel McIntyre candidate Don Salter seeks more community policing,
with officers out of their cars walking the streets of the West End.
He also wants to tackle the root causes of crime by investing in
housing and job-creation programs.

* Daniel McIntyre candidate Trudy Turner, the former head of the
area's BIZ agency, wants to increase community policing, continue
Operating Clean Sweep to combat organized street crime in the West
End, and support volunteer community patrols.

* St. James-Brooklands candidate Scott Fielding, whose family has
been victimized by crimes three times over the past 12 months, wants
to lobby the federal government for tax breaks on theft-prevention
devices such as home alarm systems and automobile immobilizers.

* Incumbent mayor Sam Katz has pledged to continue with efforts to
use computer-analyzed statistics to better deploy police on the ground.

* The Winnipeg Green Party, which is fielding six candidates for
council, wants to create a commission to work with emergency services
to improve response times.

* Donald Benham, incumbent councillor for River Heights, wants to
improve police response times and collaborate with residents on
prevention programs. He also wants to improve street lighting and
create a system to allow residents to stay abreast of crime news in
the neighbourhood.

* Charleswood candidate Livio Ciaralli says it's important to reach
kids before they become criminals and a good way to do that is to
have more resource officers in schools who get to know youth before
they commit crimes. Ciaralli believes all police should have Taser
guns and the city should lobby for a tougher penalties for criminals.

* Greg Littlejohn, candidate in the North End ward of Mynarski, wants
to see more manpower in the police department, and smarter
deployment. He also wants to explore ways to free up police officers
from routine paperwork, perhaps by asking Autopac staff to take
routine vandalism or car-theft reports instead of constables. He'd
also like to see volunteer foot patrols expanded throughout the North
End. And he'd like to bolster programs in community clubs to keep
kids out of trouble.

* Tim Bednarski, candidate for council in Point Douglas, wants to
expand Operation Clean Sweep to the North End. He says the
crime-fighting task force now concentrated in the West End needs to
rove throughout the core to keep criminals guessing. And he would
like to see schools become the base for community police officers,
where most major schools in the North End have their own officer who
gets to know the students and the neighbourhood.