BUMPER DOPE CROP MAY CUT CRIME

A bumper cannabis crop this summer could mean less crime in Wellington,
according to the National Drugs Intelligence Bureau.

The mild winter and advice from informants has led police to believe
planting may occur earlier this year, resulting in mature plants by
mid-November instead of late December.

"If people don't have to spend that much on cannabis they're not going to
have to get the money," Bureau Detective Sergeant Tony Quayle said.

Though the price of a "tinny" (several grams of cannabis wrapped in tin
foil) remains fairly static at about $20, the size could increase in a good
growing year, Mr Quayle said.

But the standard rules of supply and demand did not necessarily apply to
cannabis and the benefits of a surplus may not be passed on to the user, he
said.

"Growers could just do better out of it."

But Wellington growers were unlikely to reap a big reward, as they grow
just 2 per cent of the North Island's annual crop. A meagre 1522 plants
were destroyed in the Wellington region by the police recovery programme
last summer, national coordinator for the cannabis eradication programme
Detective Senior Sergeant Don Lee said.

This compared with 35,057 plants destroyed in the Bay of Plenty region and
24,255 in Northland.

The bulk of Wellington's plants were found in hilly country in the Hutt
Valley and Wairarapa.

The effects of a bumper season appear to vary between cities and rural
areas. Detective Sergeant Peter Burt, South Island coordinator for the
cannabis eradication programme, said a bumper season would definitely
result in an increase in crime in the South Island because of the higher
level of gang involvement, unemployment, and general disaffection.

"It's totally different down here. If there's more stuff out there more
people want it and more people get money for it through crime."

He cites activities of the Timaru Road Knights gang as an example. "From a
gang perspective, the more stuff on the street means gangs will get hold of
growers and put the acid on."

Much of the cannabis produced in Wellington is thought to be grown indoors
using hydroponics. This can produce up to three crops of high quality
cannabis a year.

Mr Burt said this method meant there was no risk of browsing animals or
other people ripping off the crop, but it was a high risk business with
growers easily identifiable.