CLINTON'S COLOMBIA VISIT TO EMPHASIZE SOLIDARITY

Talks Could Potentially Deliver A Boost To Unpopular President
Pastrana's Approval Ratings

BOGOTA, Colombia -- Besides marking a new era of cooperation in the war
on drugs, President Clinton's trip to Colombia this week could provide
a much-needed boost for the beleaguered Bogota government, analysts
say.

Clinton's visit comes at a time when Colombian President Andres
Pastrana, who is halfway through his four-year term, faces a stalled
peace process with Marxist rebels, a surge in kidnappings and rural
violence and flagging public support.

The trip also comes two months after the U.S. Congress approved $1.3
billion in anti-drug aid for the Andean region. Most of the assistance
is earmarked for Colombia, the source of 90 percent of the cocaine and
most of the heroin consumed in the United States.

"Clinton's visit represents important backing for Pastrana, who is
politically very weak," said Rodrigo Losada, a political science
professor at Javeriana University in Bogota. "Pastrana has very few
allies. His standing in opinion polls is low. And the media have been
very critical."

The two leaders will meet during Clinton's nine-hour visit to the
Caribbean port of Cartagena on Wednesday. Clinton will receive a
briefing on Colombia's drug interdiction efforts, greet widows of slain
police officers and visit a neighborhood justice center.

"The president is going to Cartagena to deliver a message of solidarity
to the Colombian people and to make clear to them that, as they
struggle at tremendous cost to make peace, build their economy, fight
drugs, promote human rights and deepen democracy, the United States
will stand by their side," said National Security Adviser Sandy Berger.

Clinton will be accompanied by Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
and other Cabinet officials as well as House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-
Ill., and Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del. Though Clinton leaves office in
January, Pastrana said his government will be lobbying for more U.S.
assistance in the coming years.

"What Clinton wants to do is show that the drug policy of the United
States is a bipartisan policy," Pastrana said last week. "I also think
he wants to leave a legacy of his fight against drugs."

Pastrana, 46, who took office two years ago this month, is struggling
to make his own mark as a statesman.

He was elected in 1998 by promising to negotiate a peace treaty with
the guerrillas, revive the economy, clean up government corruption and
improve Colombia's ties to the United States.

Though he has made progress on some fronts, the country's 36-year war
with Marxist rebels continues. A recent Gallup poll put Pastrana's job-
approval rating at just 23 percent.

"The main achievement of the Pastrana government has been in
international diplomacy, in bringing Colombia back into the
international community and the reconciliation with Washington," wrote
columnist Hernando Gomez Buendia in the Colombian news weekly Semana.

Under Pastrana's predecessor, former President Ernesto Samper,
relations with Washington sank to a new low after it was revealed that
Samper had accepted $6.1 million from the Cali drug cartel during his
1994 campaign. Colombia was blacklisted by Washington as an
uncooperative partner in the drug war, and Samper was shunned by
international leaders.

Pastrana, analysts say, has often foundered on domestic policy.

Last year, the president traveled to the jungle to open peace
negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the
nation's largest guerrilla group known as the FARC.

After 20 months of on-again, off-again talks, there have been some
advances, said Daniel Garcia-Pena, the government's peace commissioner
under Samper. He pointed out that a degree of trust has been
established between government and FARC negotiators.

But even though the government has made a number of good-will gestures,
including the formation of a large demilitarized zone that the FARC now
controls, the rebels have stepped up their attacks. They continue to
kidnap ranchers and businessmen and to work in cahoots with drug
traffickers.

One of the reasons that Clinton will visit Cartagena rather than Bogota
is that the Caribbean resort city is more secure from rebel attacks and
other violence, Berger said.

Although the FARC has pledged not to disrupt the presidential visit,
the rebels made it clear last week that they disapprove of Clinton's
trip.

"The U.S. president is not welcome here," Ivan Rios, one of the FARC's
top commanders, told reporters. "His visit is absolutely undesirable."

Due to the FARC's belligerence, many analysts say that public support
for the peace process could evaporate unless the negotiations produce a
cease-fire and other advances.

"There's a huge risk that, given the discontent and the frustration,
that there could be a breakdown of the talks," Garcia-Pena said.

He believes that the war is likely to intensify. The Colombian army,
which has the twin role of battling drug traffickers and guerrillas,
will receive millions of dollars in helicopters and training under the
U.S. aid package.

Critics say Pastrana must do more to address the war's side effects,
such as human rights violations by the military and the resettlement of
thousands of families displaced by the fighting.

Yet Pastrana often pays lip service to such issues and seems out of
touch with the concerns of average Colombians, Gomez Buendia said.

Others complain that Pastrana insists on governing with the help of a
small coterie of close friends, several of whom have been enmeshed in
corruption scandals that have damaged the president's reputation.

"I don't govern for the opinion polls," Pastrana said when asked about
his image. "That would be the easy thing to do, and perhaps my poll
ratings would be much higher. But the country would be in much worse
shape."

"Pastrana doesn't have a strong personality, but he's not a person who
fears taking difficult decisions," said Losada, the political science
professor. "He's done some unpopular things, like cutting public
spending, but they may be recognized over the long term."