GUERRILLAS AND DRUGS: HARSH CLIMATE AWAITS PRESIDENT IN COLOMBIA

BOGOTA, Colombia -- Even as President Clinton prepares to visit Colombia
Wednesday to showcase a new U.S.-backed strategy against Marxist rebels and
drug traffickers, signs are everywhere that Latin America's longest-running
guerrilla conflict is about to escalate.

Colombia's army, which is now receiving training from U.S. advisers, has
stepped up the offense with forays into Marxist rebel strongholds; some
battalions have even canceled leaves. For its part, the rebel Revolutionary
Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, was accused this week by Peruvian
security officials of having organized a complex international operation to
smuggle 10,000 assault rifles into Colombia. Fearing a spillover from
Colombia's struggle, Peru, Brazil and other neighbors have shifted troops
toward their borders with Colombia.

The first visit here by a U.S. president since 1990 marks the kickoff of
Plan Colombia, the program of military and social assistance that
Washington is counting on to allow Colombia's government to finally prevail
in the 36-year-old guerrilla conflict. House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R.,
Ill.) and Sen. Joseph Biden (D., Del.) will accompany President Clinton on
the trip, which both U.S. political parties are seizing upon as an
opportunity to show their seriousness about the drug war.

The money and the visit are part of Washington's effort to buoy Colombian
President Andres Pastrana, whom the administration calls "a reliable and
dependable partner." Much of the $1.3 billion the U.S. is providing is
headed toward military assistance, including 60 attack helicopters. There
is also some money for social programs, such as crop substitution, designed
to wean peasant farmers off of the lucrative but illegal coca plant, from
which cocaine is produced.

Now, the pressure to deliver results will be squarely on the shoulders of
Mr. Pastrana, who some analysts say is more effective at conducting
diplomatic salesmanship in Washington than he is at projecting military
power at home. "President Clinton is going to try to enumerate joint goals
and hope that Pastrana will sign onto them," says Myles Frechette, a former
U.S. ambassador to Colombia. "There is the perception in Washington that
Pastrana has moved very slowly in stepping up the counternarcotics battle."
Colombians themselves are also questioning Mr. Pastrana's leadership. With
the economy in tatters and FARC rebels controlling a swath of the country
as large as Switzerland, his approval ratings have slumped to about 30%.

Adding to his woes are bungled military operations like the one last week
in which a Colombian army patrol accidentally killed six children who were
taking a nature hike. The incident has heightened concerns about the
military's lengthy record of human-rights abuses. The case also illustrates
how the Colombian conflict has become a quagmire, in which it is difficult
to separate fact from fiction and heroes from villains: The army says that
guerrillas from the National Liberation Army, the smaller of the two
Colombian guerrilla forces challenging the government, were using the
children as human shields; guerrilla officials say they had no operatives
there; witnesses concur.

"Clearly the army had no intention of killing children," said Defense
Minister Luis Fernando Ramirez. Nevertheless, 38 officers and enlisted men
were suspended, pending an investigation. The children's killing quickly
eradicated whatever goodwill the military had won with a bold operation to
liberate hostages earlier this month. In that action, the army rescued a
Colombia media executive and five other hostages being held by FARC.

In advance of the meeting with Mr. Clinton, President Pastrana has sought
other ways of demonstrating his commitment to the drug war. Mr. Pastrana
last week approved the extradition to the U.S. of a man alleged to be one
of Colombia's most dangerous drug traffickers, Alberto Orlandez Gamboa,
nicknamed the Snail. Appearing in U.S. court in New York Thursday, Mr.
Orlandez pleaded not guilty to charges that he was involved in an alleged
scheme to smuggle more than $1 billion of cocaine into the U.S.

Predictably, drug traffickers are bridling at the extradition push. A
shadowy group calling itself the "Our Country Movement" published an
advertisement in papers in the city of Cali, threatening to assassinate
judges and politicians who cooperate with the U.S. antidrug push.

It is a measure of the breakdown in public order here that the meeting
between Messrs. Clinton and Pastrana is being held in the colonial port of
Cartagena rather than the increasingly hazardous capital of Bogota.
Guerrillas have pledged not to attempt violence against Mr. Clinton, though
they have derided his visit. FARC leader Alfonso Cano scornfully said that
Mr. Clinton was arriving with "pockets full of dollars, so that Colombians
can continue killing each other."

Not only the guerrillas but also many Colombian human-rights groups have
expressed reservations about the assistance plan. About 35 human-rights
organizations have rejected the pact, saying it doesn't earmark enough for
social spending.

Analysts outside Colombia are also daunted by the history of failed
initiatives. "The last time a U.S. president was there, a new strategy was
launched," says Eduardo Gamarra, director of the Latin American and
Caribbean Center at Florida International University. A decade has passed
since President Bush's visit, and "everything is worse."

Write to Matt Moffett at matthew.moffett@wsj.com