GUERRILLA ATTACKS RAISE WORRIES IN CENTRAL ASIA

ALMATY, Kazakhstan, Sept. 2 - Deadly clashes between guerrillas and the
armies of two former Soviet republics in Central Asia last month are
deepening concerns that an effort is under way to destabilize the region.

Guerrillas operating from bases in Tajikistan staged several incursions
into a remote mountainous region bordering Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
Unconfirmed government reports said dozens of rebels and at least 30
soldiers from the two countries had been killed in the battles.

The Uzbek government says the attacks are organized by the Islamic Movement
of Uzbekistan, which it says infiltrated the Fergana Valley from Tajikistan
and Afghanistan.

The death toll remains low, and fighting has been sporadic. But the attacks
have been more frequent than in the past, and government officials and
Western diplomats said the rebels were better trained and equipped, with
antiaircraft weapons, night-vision equipment and sniper rifles.

The presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan met on
Aug. 20 and issued a statement vowing that "terrorist actions will be
crushed using the most decisive measures." President Nursultan A.
Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan has asked for broad new powers to curb religious
extremists.

The Uzbek government said that the guerrillas included fighters from other
countries in addition to Tajikistan and Afghanistan and that they had
modern arms and communication equipment as well as good financing.

The evidence is strong that the insurgents are Islamic militants trained
and armed in Afghanistan, say Kazakh officials and Western diplomats. Some
officials said the rebels wanted to create havoc to keep borders open for
the heroin flow, which the authorities said was increasing sharply. Other
officials speculated that the intent was to spread Islamic fundamentalism.

Whatever the goals, the violence has clearly reached a new stage. Fighting
this summer rose significantly beyond the bombings in the Uzbek capital,
Tashkent, in February 1999 and the single incident last summer in which
Islamic rebels held several hostages in Kyrgyzstan.

[Military officials in Kyrgyzstan said on Sept. 5 that the armed forces had
bombed suspected rebel hideouts after hundreds of insurgents had crossed
into that country from Tajikistan, according to news agencies. Officials
said more than 7,000 government troops had been mobilized to counter a
force of about 700 rebels in the mountainous region.]

Jerzy Wieclaw, head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe's office in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, said rebels had used antiaircraft
guns and possibly helicopters. He also said they were demonstrating new
strength to an impoverished population potentially ripe for change.

"These countries can cope with the threat now, but it seems to be a
long-term strategy to find military and political weak points," Mr. Wieclaw
said.

Uncertainties remain about whether the fighting last month was the extent
of the rebels' abilities or a precursor to attacks intended to plunge the
region into greater instability.

"The question is whether this is what everybody has been fearing," Martha
Brill Olcott, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace in Washington, said in a telephone interview.

For years the leaders of many of the former Soviet republics have justified
harsh steps against political opponents by arguing that they are necessary
to keep terrorism at bay. The presidents are certain to emphasize the
security threat during previously scheduled meetings at the United Nations
during the gathering of worlld leaders there.

The first substantial battle was reported in early August. Government
officials in Uzbekistan said guerrillas from Tajikistan had clashed with
troops, leaving 20 rebels and 12 soldiers dead. On Aug. 11 officials in
Kyrg yzstan said 100 militants had entered the country and engaged in a
pitched battle with government troops. Unconfirmed reports said 20 soldiers
and 50 rebels had been killed.

Since then there have been sporadic clashes, including intelligence reports
that rebel snipers have used advanced rifles and night-vision equipment for
attacks.

Kazakhstan joined its neighbors in sending military reinforcements to the
borders in the region, and Uzbekistan threatened to chase the rebels
wherever they went, an action that could create a new set of tensions if
Uzbek troops cross into Tajikistan.

Some diplomats worry that the threat will be used by the governments as a
cover for getting tougher on internal dissent in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
Uzbekistan, where human rights groups already complain that political
freedom is suppressed.

Benita Ferrero-Waldner, chairwoman of the European security organization,
praised the cooperation among the Central Asian nations against terrorism
but cautioned them to avoid civilian casualties and repression. Democratic
and economic reforms, she said in a statement issued in Vienna, are the
best means of ensuring that terrorists do not find the support needed to
expand the fighting.

Even before the latest attacks, the presidents of all three countries
centralized authority and limited political expression in the name of
fighting terrorism and drug trafficking, though the degrees vary from
country to country.

The attacks have caused geopolitical complications outside the region. The
head of Russia's security council attended the meeting of the region's
presidents in August and offered Russian troops, who are already battling
rebels in Chechnya, as reinforcements. The Chinese, concerned about
separatists in Muslim-inhabited areas of western China, have also pledged
cooperation.

But the Central Asian leaders, struggling to establish independent
identities after decades of Soviet domination, seemed in no hurry to duck
under a Russian military umbrella or embrace Chinese security assistance.

In the long run, Mr. Wieclaw and other diplomats predicted, the outcome of
the war may be decided not by military power, but by how much backing the
insurgents find in the countryside, where unemployment and disenchantment
with government are running high.