COLOMBIA'S LOOKING A LOT LIKE VIETNAM

President Clinton's national security adviser, Sandy Berger, insists the
U.S. incursion into a long-running civil war - er, excuse us, $1.3 billion
worth of assistance to the government in fighting the drug war - in
Colombia is not like Vietnam. Not at all. "The fact is, this is nothing
similar whatsoever," he told The Associated Press.

Of course there are differences. But the parallels are too eerie to be
dismissed.

The United States is entering a long-running civil war in a jungle country.
The United States plans to send in advisers and helicopters. People are to
be relocated to "strategic hamlets" (though that's not the term being used)
and taught to grow different crops. Part of the plan is to defoliate the
jungle (with fungus rather than with napalm).

And a few other things are missing this time around, suggesting that U.S.
national interests should be very limited.

Foremost, there is no global communist threat, and therefore no support for
the other side by a hostile superpower with expansive ambitions.

In fact, beyond the idea of "drug traffickers" - who are acknowledged to be
a divided, shifting and competitive lot - it's hard to figure out if there
is an "other side." Most authorities count about 20 armed groups with
various agendas in Colombia.

There is no way to construct a remotely plausible "domino theory" in regard
to the Colombia drug war.

If anything, the most destabilizing force in Colombia is likely to be U.S.
intervention. On a tour to try to drum up support among Colombia's
neighbors last month, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and other U.S.
officials encountered mostly skepticism and fear, according to news reports.

Ecuador is concerned about refugees, so Ms. Albright offered the country
$15 million. Brazilian foreign minister Luiz Felipe Lampreia said outright
that "Brazil does not have the same level of commitment as the United
States in the program to fight drug trafficking in Colombia," and the
country is beefing up its border forces. Peru is moving forces from its
Ecuadorian border to its Colombian border in anticipation of refugees and
disruption. Panama is requesting $30 million from the United States to
handle expected border disruptions. Venezuela may or may not provide a safe
haven for guerrillas.

One could hardly expect the Colombian government to say "no, thanks" to
money and helicopters; indeed, it will no doubt ask for more each year for
years to come. But the iron logic of prohibition economics suggests the
drug trade won't be stopped. As former Colombian police official Gustavo de
Greiff has explained, a kilo of processed cocaine goes for about $2,000 in
Colombia but can be sold for $60,000 on U.S. streets.

That's a lot of profit for a lot of middlemen, and if you arrest one, three
more will jump forward to take his place. If you suppress coca growing in
Colombia it will pop up in Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela or Brazil. Indeed, it's
already happening.

Many drugs are said to cloud the mind, make it difficult to discern reality
and subvert logical thinking. A drug war seems to have precisely that
impact on policy-makers.