CLINTON'S DRUGS WAR PLEDGE RAISES 'VIETNAMISATION' FEARS

LATE in August, President Bill Clinton made a one-day visit to Cartagena in
Colombia to pledge political and financial support for that country's
anti-drug effort. The agreed $1.3 billion in military aid is limited to the
drug fight and not directed toward ending the Colombian government's
decades-long battle with rebel groups. Clinton said: "This is not Vietnam,
nor is it Yankee imperialism."

He was reacting to critics at home and in and around Colombia who fear the
consequences of a growing fight to stop the Colombian drug traffickers, who
supply 90 per cent of the cocaine and most of the heroin that enters the
United States.

American intelligence estimates say that Colombia produced 520 metric tons
of cocaine last year, three times what the CIA had previously calculated,
and its opium-poppy cultivation jumped 23 per cent in 1999.

Clinton said the US was helping Colombia with its $7.5 billion five-year
programme to destroy much of its drug crop, root out traffickers, and
rebuild its judiciary and other government operations. A proportion of the
funding is also coming from Europe and international agencies.

He said continued support would require the government in the capital
Bogota to break its ties with paramilitary groups and adhere to strict
human rights standards.

Clinton also urged Colombia's neighbours to stand by it in its struggle
against the drug trade, even if they suffer from an overflow of refugees,
coca growers and guerrillas. Some of those neighbours are worried about the
American attack helicopters, including 18 modern Blackhawks.

Guaranteed revenue Colombian president Andres Pastrana is trying to promote
economic recovery, enhance national security, make peace and strengthen
institutions of both the state and civil society in a country where a
50-year insurgency has grown remarkably in recent days, amid depression and
the mushrooming narco-traffic. The largest and oldest Marxist insurgency
group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), enjoys guaranteed
revenue by protecting and taxing the narcotics industry. A smaller group,
the National Liberation Army (ELN), funds operations by kidnapping people
for ransom.

FARC is the most powerful guerrilla group in Latin America. It has 17,000
members and is dedicated to the violent overthrow of Pastrana's government
and is now openly defying the US. FARC leaders say they will continue to
use money from illicit drugs to finance their escalating war. They claim
that, given the steady build-up of US military might in Colombia, it is
only a matter of time before they train their gunsights on US troops.

Andres Paris, spokesman for the FARC leadership, said: "This confrontation
is inevitable, but we are making efforts to avoid it."

In August, to coincide with approval in Washington of the aid package for
Colombia, the FARC staged high-profile attacks on towns across the country.
These defy a peace process that has yielded only limited progress since
Pastrana initiated it 19 months ago.

While in Colombia, Clinton did his best to dispel the notion that the US is
about to slip into the morass of another jungle war such as El Salvador, or
worse, Vietnam. But the fact is that half of Colombia's territory is now
controlled by the Marxist guerrillas in league with coca growers and drug
traffickers.

Guerilla mode Critics say drugs are so lucrative that they cannot be easily
separated from a tangle of risks that will face any growing American
involvement in Colombia.

James Jones, who served from 1997 to 1999 as a regional adviser to the
United Nations International Drug Control Programme in Colombia, Peru and
Bolivia, said: "US officials are disingenuous when they say we are fighting
drugs, not insurgents. The distinction is illusory. There is only one
battlefield. The aid will not only ratchet up the violence, it may well
derail the ongoing peace process.

"The aid package, with its helicopters and improved surveillance, is more
likely to push FARC into its guerrilla mode than to bring it to the peace
table. It could also inspire the rebels to launch an urban campaign of
sabotage and assassination. If so, right-wing militias would probably
retaliate with increased assaults on the civilian rural population that
they think supports the FARC. An already dirty war could get a whole lot
dirtier."

Ralph Peters, a retired US Army officer, believes the US is setting a trap
for itself. He said: "The Clinton administration's proposed security aid is
a substitute for strategy. Our policy is essentially to send a cheque and
cross our fingers. There is no evidence that the White House and the
Pentagon have engaged in conceptual thinking about Colombia and the
troubled region around it. As with the former Yugoslavia, US civilian and
military leaders are declining to think the problem through, fearing what
serious analysis might reveal."

He went on: "The lesson of Vietnam is that no amount of US largess or
American might can save a government unable to save itself."

Human rights Some observers fear that the likeliest outcome in Colombia is
stalemate - complete with corrupt officials, black marketeers,
narco-traffickers and the broad assortment of questionable elements who
profit from disorder. The unwanted result of US aid, it is feared, could be
to strengthen the current system just enough to preserve all of its worst
characteristics.

Human rights, religious and union groups have sharply criticised the
Colombian military's human rights performance and announced their
disapproval of the aid package, in that it includes nothing to combat
right-wing paramilitary groups. These, they claim, are allied with the
military and are also heavily involved in drugs trafficking and
wide-ranging atrocities against civilians.

The Colombian president is not popular. Unemployment stands at 20 per cent
and the country is enduring its worst recession in 70 years. According to a
Human Rights Watch report in February, the Colombian army is still fighting
guerrillas and Clinton aides have privately admitted that it will be
impossible to separate the two in future battles.

The most important support the guerrillas have, say most analysts, is a
ready source of funds from drug protection money estimated at several
hundred million dollars a year. That is enough to keep them well equipped,
well fed, and unenthusiastic about making peace.

Critics of the aid package say it is designed in Washington to meet
domestic US concerns and has little relevance to what is happening in Colombia.

"There is no way to sustain the distinction between drug traffickers and
guerrillas in southern Colombia," according to Bruce Bagley, a professor of
international studies at the University of Miami. "US policy will break
down on the first day," he said.

But Colombian officials disagree. They say the plan will ultimately destroy
the guerrillas' capacity to make war. General Fernando Tapias, commander of
the armed forces, said: "It's not a matter of Marxist philosophy anymore;
the guerrillas are now in the fight for the money. The plan for peace will
not work without a decisive fight against drugs."

Disastrous consequences Those pushing for a strong US programme assert that
failing to counter insurgencies and curb the drug trade now will lead to
Colombia's collapse, with disastrous consequences for the stability of its
neighbours, the cause of Latin American democracy, and the control of drugs.

The White House argues that the Pastrana administration has done more than
its predecessors to seek a peaceful settlement with insurgent groups, to
clean up the armed forces and police, and to strengthen civilian authority.

Professor Abraham Lowenthal, of the University of Southern California,
said: "The strongest case for approving the requested Colombian
appropriation rests on the argument that there are some real, if limited,
prospects that the Pastrana government could modestly advance its approach
if it had US assistance.

"The fact that the US has the resources does not mean it has the right
answers. Washington should make security and economic assistance available
while focusing on how to minimise the risks of more direct US military
involvement," he said.

The day after Clinton's visits to Cartegena, an unprecedented meeting of
South American presidents took place in Brazil. The leaders expressed their
deep concerns about the possible 'Vietnamisation' of Colombia's civil war
and how it might affect them.

Neighbours Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela have grown increasingly
vocal in expressing worries that they will become victims of spillover from
the Colombian government's efforts to cripple rebel forces. They are
shoring up their borders against refugees and rebels seeking safe haven,
saying they do not want to become new centres of drug trafficking and
production.

Already there have been reports of guerrilla incursions into Venezuela,
Panama and Ecuador, as well as sightings of coca and poppy plantations in
Peru operated by Colombians.

But at the summit their rhetoric softened and they agreed to send Colombia
a message of solidarity.