DRUG WAR 'SUCCESSES'

Last January, we criticized Lloyd Axworthy, the foreign affairs
minister, for his involvement in futile and destructive efforts to
eradicate drugs in South America. Mr. Axworthy responded by chiding us
for, in his words, ignoring "recent progress."

Ordinarily, we would be loathe to revive an old debate. But recent
events in South America show what misery has come from the "progress"
touted by Mr. Axworthy and his fellow officials in the Americas.

For while the world focuses on more immediate crises in Yugoslavia and
the Middle East, the entire Andean region -- the source of all the
world's cocaine and much of its heroin -- is suffering from serious
unrest and fears of worse to come.

For several years, Bolivia has been the drug war's trophy nation, a
place where concerted anti-drug efforts led to a major decline in coca
cultivation. In January, Mr. Axworthy toured Bolivian anti-drug
projects his office had lauded as great successes.

It's a pity Mr. Axworthy isn't in Bolivia today, or he could see the
riots and strikes that recently spread across the country. Poor coca
farmers whose incomes have been drastically cut by the anti-coca
drive, along with Indians outraged that their traditional use of coca
is threatened, were fighting battles with police. Roadblocks and
strikes by teachers and others paralysed the country. At least 10
people died.

The other alleged example of success in the drug war is Peru, which
also cut its coca cultivation drastically. But, exactly as critics
predicted, that only led to increases in local coca prices, and so
there are early signs that production is growing again.

Of course, the declines in coca cultivation in Peru and Bolivia were
matched by increases in Colombia. The result, as a recent series in
the Citizen documented, was a horrible escalation in civil war,
massacres and refugees in that country.

In response, Colombia, prodded by the United States and with the
support of Canada, is planning a military assault on rebel-held
coca-growing regions. This has prompted rebel forces to dramatically
increase their own military operations, piling up more corpses and
adding thousands more refugees to the 1.5 million who have already
been pushed out of their homes.

Many experts think the Colombian assault has no chance of succeeding.
But even if it does, it will be devastating -- which the U.S.
acknowledged by budgeting money for the refugees who will result.

Many of those refugees will likely flood into neighbouring Ecuador,
which is already planning camps to hold at least 5,000 Colombians.
Cocaine-processing labs are also starting to pop up in Ecuador. So are
growing numbers of Colombian guerrillas and paramilitaries.

Brazil also fears the Colombian troubles will seep onto its territory,
and has launched a $10-million U.S. effort to protect its
1,600-kilometre frontier with Colombia. Brazil is also considering
sending 6,000 soldiers into the region.

The story is much the same in Venezuela, where teeming numbers of
Colombian refugees have prompted a clampdown at the border.

And what about the illegal drug trade? Are governments at least
succeeding in reducing the production and trafficking of drugs?

The best indicator of supply is price. On the streets of the United
States, which has pursued prohibition more zealously than any other
country, the prices of both cocaine and heroin are at near-record
lows. The suffering of South Americans may be growing daily, but the
illegal drug trade is ticking along, unruffled and profitable.

Whether all this is proof of "progress," or of the stupidity of the
War on Drugs, is a judgment call Mr. Axworthy might wish to rethink.