DEFENSE MINISTERS FEAR CONFRONTING DRUG FORCES

Colombian Rebels Pushing Into Neighboring Countries

MANAUS, Brazil - With Colombian guerrillas and drug traffickers threatening
to destabilize the entire region, Western Hemisphere defense ministers
gathered in northern Brazil this week to discuss the possibility of a more
coordinated military response.

But to the apparent chagrin of U.S. and Colombian officials, few of the
ministers actually want to address the main problem: At Colombia's borders,
leftist rebels are expanding their operations into neighboring countries
and prompting one of the most massive military mobilizations the region has
seen in decades.

In an interview en route to Brazil on Monday, Secretary of Defense William
Cohen alluded to the problems the United States faces in establishing a
united front against the onslaught from Colombia's various insurgent forces.

On the one hand, he said, all countries in the region recognize the growing
threat that these armed groups, financed with hundreds of millions of
dollars in illicit drug proceeds, pose to Colombia's neighbors.

But like the United States, Colombia's neighbors are reluctant to get
involved in a direct confrontation that could lead to a Vietnam-like quagmire.

"What we have tried to do is call attention to the problem to all countries
in the region, saying this is not unique to Colombia," Mr. Cohen said.
"This will not necessarily remain in Colombia, and there's an interest in
you [neighboring countries] discussing this, finding ways of sharing
information, finding ways to cooperate.

"So a lot will depend on the unfolding circumstances whether these
countries feel it is a threat to their own security," he added.

The United States is providing $1.3 billion in mostly military aid aimed at
combating the insurgent groups supporting Colombia's booming cocaine and
heroin trade. Colombia's neighbors reiterated their concerns this week that
the U.S. aid, combined with the presence of American troops in Colombia,
could add to regional instability.

Events over the last week have underscored the severity of the problem -
dubbed the "spillover effect" by Mr. Cohen - that Colombia's five immediate
neighbors now confront.

Last week, an armed military group crossed nearly 60 miles into Ecuador and
hijacked a helicopter full of foreign oil workers. At least five of the
hostages are Americans, who all remain captive.

Ecuador said that it believes the kidnappers were from the leftist
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the nation's largest guerrilla
group, and that they staged the attack in response to a U.S.-funded
military buildup designed to confront the rebels.

Ecuadorean Defense Minister Hugo Unda said Wednesday that cross-border
incursions by Colombian guerrillas are going unchecked and are occurring
almost on a routine basis.

Last weekend, another armed group crossed into Panama and stormed a police
outpost in a jungle village, killing or wounding a dozen inhabitants.

Panamanian President Mireya Moscoso, who has no national military to draw
upon, has employed a retired U.S. Army colonel to advise her on ways to
deal with the nation's recurring security problems on the border with Colombia.

Also last weekend, Venezuelan troops clashed with Colombian guerrillas on
the border between those two nations, prompting accusations from the
government in Bogota that Venezuela's forces had illegally crossed into
Colombian territory.

No united response

Peru and Panama both have uncovered major arms smuggling rings in recent
weeks that were responsible for delivering more than 10,000 assault rifles,
explosives and other weaponry to Colombian guerrillas.

But instead of grouping together to address what all agree is a serious,
growing problem, Colombia's neighbors so far have declined to consider a
regionwide response, U.S. officials said.

Colombian President Andres Pastrana has toured South America over the last
month trying to drum up support for his $7.5 billion counternarcotics
initiative, Plan Colombia, but so far he has received a lukewarm reception.

"It would seem to me that democracies would want to be supportive of one
another," Mr. Cohen said. "But that's a freedom of choice that they have.
They can see this as being something isolated, totally unrelated. They
might see this potentially as a long-term threat to their own security."

In spite of the problems Mr. Pastrana is having with regional support for
Plan Colombia, Mr. Cohen said the United States is not inclined to lobby on
Colombia's behalf or become more deeply involved militarily. He said other
nations would have to decide for themselves.

"There is no expectation on the part of the United States that other
militaries will become engaged in Colombia," he said. "That's something
that only a country can decide. That's up to them in terms of what kind of
support they may choose to provide."

Limited involvement

Mr. Cohen emphasized that Congress has imposed strict limits on the number
of U.S. personnel - 500 military trainers and 300 civilian contract workers
- - who can be present in Colombia at any time related to the military-aid
package. He acknowledged, however, that those troops can become engaged in
combat if they come under attack. Colombia's rebels have said they will
target American forces.

"We have very stringent force-protection measures for any of our people who
are in Colombia," Mr. Cohen said. "Is it impossible for someone to be
harmed in Colombia? The answer is, it's not impossible. But we take every
precaution to make sure that we have solid force protection."

One of Colombia's neighbors, Venezuela, is openly opposed to the U.S.
military component of Plan Colombia. On Wednesday, Venezuela's chief
representative to the Manaus conference criticized the current
U.S.-dominated defense strategy in the region as outdated and called for
establishment of an independent, South American equivalent to NATO.

With the presence of 200 to 300 U.S. troops in Colombia on any given day,
the prospect for increased border incursions by Colombian guerrillas could
dramatically increase, said Gen. Ismael Eliezer Hurtado, commander of
Venezuela's army.

"That is one of our fears," he said, adding that the introduction in
Colombia of more than 2,000 U.S.-trained counterinsurgency forces "could
cause the subversive groups to cross the border. The basis of our concerns
is that this could make the violence heat up and generate actions with
negative repercussions in Venezuela."

'A regional problem'

Likewise, Ecuador's defense minister, Hugo Unda, voiced concerns Wednesday
that Colombia's problems increasingly are becoming Ecuador's problems.

"In general, the guerrillas can cross into Ecuadorean territory with
relative tranquillity," Mr. Unda said. "We calculate that there will be
repercussions from Plan Colombia inside Ecuador."

He forecast an increase in refugees, a potentially large-scale transfer of
drug-cultivation fields to Ecuador, and mounting problems with guerrilla
incursions.

"It is a regional problem. We are analyzing the possibility of a joint
response," he said. "But up to now, there are no conversations or accords
for us to provide a regional response to the problem."

The governments of Peru, Brazil and Venezuela have responded individually
by sending tens of thousands of troops to their borders with Colombia,
ostensibly to fend off any potential guerrilla incursions. Ecuador has
invited the United States to operate military surveillance aircraft from an
air force base near Colombia's border.

Brazil's actions

Ever since a rebel incursion into Brazil's northwestern Amazon region in
October 1999, this nation's military strategy has undergone an entire
alignment to confront what it now regards as its most pressing security threat.

Jane's Defense Weekly reported last June that the Brazilian army has moved
an estimated 23,000 troops into the Amazon region and created a Jungle
Infantry Battalion to train and equip forces for jungle combat against
insurgents and drug traffickers.

Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso emphasized the vulnerability
of Brazil's sprawling and largely unprotected Amazon region when he
addressed the defense ministers on Tuesday. But stopping far short of
offering a coordinated response to the regional security threat, Mr.
Cardoso dismissed Colombia's violence as a "domestic problem" and insisted
Brazil had "no interest" in getting involved.

He did, however, offer to share access to a $1.5 billion radar and
electronic-monitoring system that Brazil purchased from the United States
to protect the Amazon from poachers, traffickers and armed groups.

Plan Colombia

In spite of the lackluster response, Colombian Defense Minister Luis
Fernando Ramirez said in an interview that he is not disheartened.

"I agree with Secretary Cohen that the countries [of the region] should be
worried about the spillover effect if we don't have this strategy, if we
don't have Plan Colombia," he said.

"What could be better for drug trafficking and violence to continue
flourishing than for us not to have a strategy? Fortunately, we do have a
strategy, and this strategy is not going to bring us to war but rather is
going to calm the tensions," Mr. Ramirez said. "I think there has been a
bad perception among some analysts that Plan Colombia will not work. Plan
Colombia is going to be the solution that, so far, has not existed."