SUCCESS AT WHAT PRICE?

As Colombia widens the campaign against narco-guerrillas, its
neighbours fear that success could mean instability for the region.

Colombia's growing efforts to combat guerrilla insurgents and drug
cartels, backed by increasing amounts of US financing and equipment,
are renewing concerns among its South American neighbours that the
struggle could translate into regional instability.

South American nations for some time have said they believe Colombia's
escalating insurgency and drugs war are problems that should be
addressed internally. This view stems largely from a broad distrust of
US military operations in the region as well as the belief that
increased US involvement in the quagmire will force guerrillas and
drug traffickers to expand their operations into neighbouring countries.

Colombian efforts so far to halt the guerrilla offensive and curtail
drug production, while still far from adequate, have met with some
success. That success is expected to gain momentum as Washington's
recently-approved three-year $1.3 billion equipment and training
package for Colombia begins to arrive. But already there is evidence
that Colombia's stepped-up operations are putting the guerrillas and
drug cartels on the run. Continued success could have the unintended
consequence of pushing the conflict even further into neighbouring
states.

The conflict has already spilled over into Brazil, Ecuador, Panama,
Peru and Venezuela, which are being forced to deal with large numbers
of refugees, armed guerrillas and the increased crime associated with
the drug trade, including murder, gun and drug running and
prostitution.

In response, Brazil and Ecuador have both moved sizable numbers of
troops to their jungle border regions in an attempt to fend off the
intrusions. On 20 October Ecuador's foreign minister, Heinz Moeller,
requested between $250 million and $300 million in US aid to help
protect its 370-mile border, which runs along Putumayo state,
Colombia's most lucrative rebel-controlled narcotics production region.

A State Department source who is close to the situation told Jane's
Defence Weekly last week that Ecuador will receive $20 million in aid
for border control efforts including surveillance, training, and
refugee services. However, the source had little confidence that
Ecuador could or would use the funds effectively.

During the annual Summit of the Americas held in Brazil last month,
defence ministers from 25 nations from across the Western Hemisphere
focused on the growing security threat that Colombia's conflict poses
to the region. But the very fear that, as Colombia's success grows and
the conflict spreads, has led neighbouring governments to forego any
direct assistance to Bogota. These nations are also worried that any
support of 'Plan Colombia' will make them a target for rebel attacks.

Raul Duany, a senior spokesman for the US Southern Command, told JDW
that "Plan Colombia is the not the problem. The problem has been there
for over 30 years and it is not going to go away." He felt that it was
"unfair to blame a programme that is trying to solve Colombia's problems".

According to the State source, many neighbouring countries suffer from
the "ostrich with its head in the sand syndrome"- meaning that they
want either to ignore the problems surrounding the expanding conflict
or let the Colombians handle it without any help.

Another US government official said Colombia's Minister of National
Defence Luis Fernando Ramirez made a "forceful appeal" for support
from the regional leaders at the summit, but said his country was
prepared to fight the drug traffickers and guerrillas alone.

US Defense Secretary William Cohen was also unable to convince his
counterparts in the region to offer financial or equipment support to
the $7.5 billion 'Plan Colombia', President Andres Pastrana's
nation-wide plan to end the civil war, neutralise the drug trade and
build an alternative economy. Argentina was the only country at the
summit to express verbal, though limited, support for Pastrana's plan.

US President Bill Clinton visited Colombia in late August to formally
declare US support for 'Plan Colombia' despite lingering concerns in
the US Congress over the human rights record of the Colombian National
Police (CNP) and Colombian armed forces. The US counter-narcotics
funding package will be used to acquire 42 refurbished Bell
Helicopter-Textron UH-1 Huey II and 18 new Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk
utility helicopters, various other equipment and specialised training
for counter-drug units in the Colombian military.

It has been debated whether the new helicopters will meet all of
Colombia's operational requirements. Officials maintain that the less
expensive, less capable Huey IIs, which make up the bulk of the
package, will fall short in the altitude they can fly and their
logistics support.

Nevertheless, the US package will provide a range of capabilities
Colombia currently lacks and will undoubtedly improve its
counter-insurgency operations, raising the spectre that guerrillas and
drug traffickers will be forced to move their operations across
Colombia's porous borders.

Despite the concerns of its neighbours, ample evidence remains that
Colombian security forces desperately need help to address the
guerrilla threat. The Colombian Army and CNP are constantly
out-numbered and out-gunned by the country's two largest insurgent
forces: the 15,000-strong leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia (FARC) and the 5,000-strong rightist National Liberation Army
(ELN).

During a recent offensive, FARC rebels killed more than 50 Colombian
police officers and soldiers in the northwest state of Antioquia; shot
down a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter, killing its 22 occupants; and
damaged a second UH-60 with ground fire, killing one soldier and
seriously wounding the pilot. FARC commanders have repeatedly warned
that any new infusion of US helicopters will be targeted by rebel forces.

The FARC and ELN together currently control approximately 40% of
Colombia's countryside and provide protection for the nation's drug
cultivation and processing operations. A large portion of the areas
are in Colombia's southern states where, in 1998, the FARC was granted
a demilitarised zone the size of Switzerland as part of Pastrana's
efforts at negotiating a peace treaty.

The FARC uses this territory to recruit and train guerrillas, prepare
for military operations, store and import weapons and to traffic in
narcotics. In a recent scandal that alarmed the Colombian military and
US intelligence agencies, FARC rebels air dropped approximately 10,000
AK-47 rifles into their demilitarised zone after they were purchased
from Jordan under the guise of a government-to-government military
sale.

Colombian forces have also discovered what has now been dubbed the
'FARC Highway' just 50 miles south of the country's capital of Bogota.
This 60-mile long, two-lane dirt road was cut through the Andean
highlands using stolen earth-moving equipment without the knowledge of
the Colombian military. According to local reports, the road is
capable of handling 2,000 rebels at a time using established camps and
outposts along the way.

While Pentagon and State officials agree that 'Plan Colombia' has
brought existing problems to a head, it is not the reason for
Colombia's escalating conflict. Sources have stated that the Colombian
forces need to do more to break the rebel blockades and offensives,
but concede that it will be impossible without the support of the USA
and the South American border nations. The primary question is whether
the USA's multilateral approach and faith in the Colombian government
is enough to make a serious impact on an expanding three decade long
conflict fuelled by a booming narcotics trade ... only time will tell.