THE BALLOT BATTLE; INITIATIVE ENGINEERS SEEM TO BE RUNNING OUT OF STEAM

In a year when many ballot measures may face a skeptical electorate, the two
most noted initiative entrepreneurs in the Northwest are struggling to
maintain their leverage.

Bill Sizemore, who collected signatures for seven of the record 26 measures
on the Oregon ballot Tuesday, and Tim Eyman, who created two of the six
initiatives on the Washington ballot, are running into fierce resistance
from opponents.

Elsewhere around the country, said Dane Waters, head of the Initiative and
Referendum Institute in Washington, D.C., "it does not look like a banner
year for passing ballot measures." He said the 1998 success rate of 61
percent was "unusually high by historical standards," and is almost
certainly not going to be duplicated next week.

The 70 voter initiatives and two popular referendums that share ballots with
130 measures placed there by legislatures touch on many inflammatory topics
from assisted suicide to zoning controls, to say nothing of a batch of tax
limitation measures.

Waters foresees tough sledding for many of the propositions, including
various animal protection or hunting limitation statutes.

In Massachusetts, for example, polls this week showed four major initiatives
winning support from 37 to 50 percent of the people, making them likely
losers. They include a measure backed by Gov. Paul Cellucci (R) to reduce
the state income tax and initiatives to end turnpike tolls, ban dog racing
and mandate a universal health care program.

On the other hand, Waters said, initiatives to require background checks of
gun show purchasers have a good chance in Colorado and Oregon.

The Oregon ballot is more jam-packed than any in history, requiring the
Voters' Pamphlet to be published in two volumes totaling 428 pages.
Signatures to qualify six of the 26 measures were collected by Sizemore, the
salaried head of the Oregon Taxpayers Association and the president of I & R
Petition Services, a signature-gathering firm that Sizemore says took in
about $ 1 million in fees for its work this cycle.

Sizemore, who parlayed his fame as an anti-tax crusader into gaining the
Republican gubernatorial nomination in 1998, only to lose decisively to Gov.
John Kitzhaber (D), has lost more often than he has won on his ballot
initiatives as well. But, as his frequent critic, former secretary of state
Phil Keisling, said, "He doesn't really mind losing, because he comes back
with the same measure the next year."

For example, two of Sizemore's current initiatives are patterned on a 1998
measure, narrowly rejected by voters, which would have banned dues checkoffs
for state employees if their unions used any of the money for political
activities. His new versions apply to public-sector and private-sector
unions.

Roger Gray, who is coordinating the union-led opposition coalition, said,
"We spent $ 4 million to beat it in 1998 and it will cost us about the same
this time." One of the opposition ads features a firefighter telling viewers
that his union helps Jerry Lewis's annual muscular dystrophy drive with some
of its dues checkoffs, "so on behalf of Jerry's kids, and all the rest of
us, please vote no."

Another Sizemore initiative--building on tax-limit measures he has sponsored
successfully in the past--would allow unlimited deduction of federal income
tax payments from state income taxes, superseding the current $ 3,000
deduction cap. Official estimates are that it would reduce annual revenues $
800 million to $ 1 billion in a state general fund budget of about $ 6
billion. And another would require that any future increase in taxes or fees
be approved at the ballot box by the same percentage of voters as pass this
initiative.

Kitzhaber, a supporter of the initiative process, said in an interview that
"the problem is the way it's being used now. There are hired guns who make a
business of collecting signatures, so any group that can raise $ 200,000 can
get a constitutional amendment on the ballot."

Where Sizemore favors a shotgun strategy that forces his opponents to fight
on many fronts at once, Eyman has taken a more targeted approach in
Washington. The youthful entrepreneur, who calls his initiative enterprise
Permanent Offense, beat the state's political and business establishment
with a low-budget 1999 initiative capping the annual motor vehicle excise
fee, which had been as high as several hundred dollars on expensive, new
cars, at a flat $ 30, and requiring public approval of any new or increased
taxes and fees.

That measure would have reduced annual revenue by $ 750 million. This year,
Eyman is sponsoring a "son of I-695" initiative rolling back all levies
local governments passed to make up for the reduced state aid resulting from
his 1999 measure. But on Sept. 28, the Washington supreme court ruled 8 to 1
that I-695 was unconstitutional because it dealt with more than one subject
and was misleading to voters.

Eyman took the setback in stride, noting that the legislature and governor
had responded to I-695 by enacting the $ 30 excise cap on their own. He
promises that he will try next year to pass an initiative requiring public
approval of any future tax hikes.

In the meantime, he is engaged in battle with the same kind of coalition of
political-business leaders over a measure he placed on Tuesday's ballot to
ensure that 90 percent of all transportation money be used to build or
improve highways. That is his approach to the traffic jams and sprawl
problems afflicting the Seattle area.

In Arizona, the Sierra Club and other environmentalists are promoting an
ambitious land use initiative. A similar initiative is on the ballot in
Colorado.

Among the other five initiatives on the Arizona ballot are measures to end
bilingual education and to create a nonpartisan redistricting commission.

In Colorado, voters will also face initiatives requiring a 24-hour delay in
obtaining an abortion and one phasing out a variety of local and state
taxes. Polls this week showed support for both measures eroding and their
passage may be in doubt.

In California, Gov. Gray Davis (D) has put his prestige on the line for an
initiative that would help build schools by reducing the requirement for
approval of school bonds from 67 percent down to 55 percent. With taxpayer
groups in opposition, polls show it slipping close to dangerous territory.

Maine will vote on physician-assisted suicide and gay rights; the latter has
been polling majority support, but the fate of the former is in doubt.

Groups led by financier George Soros have placed measures liberalizing drug
laws on the ballot in six states: California, Colorado, Massachusetts,
Nevada, Oregon and Utah. Two would allow doctors to prescribe marijuana to
patients; two would divert first and second drug offenders to treatment
programs instead of jail; and two would make it more difficult for law
enforcement officials to confiscate property in drug busts.

Generally speaking, the medical marijuana measures command higher support in
the polls than the other proposals. In Alaska, a group not affiliated with
Soros is sponsoring an initiative simply to legalize marijuana.