MCCAFFREY PREDICTS TOUGH FIGHT IN COLOMBIA DRUG OFFENSIVE

BOGOTA, Colombia -- White House drug czar Barry McCaffrey on Monday
predicted heavy fighting in an approaching U.S.-backed antidrug offensive
and warned that there would be repercussions for Colombia's neighbors.

But with "vital" U.S. interests at stake, and insurgents growing stronger
through deepening ties to the drug trade, Mr. McCaffrey said he saw no
alternative to the $1.3 billion effort set to get under way in January.

"Colombia has no option. Your survival is at stake, and those of us who are
friends of Colombia must stand with you," Mr. McCaffrey told a news
conference Monday as he started a two-day visit accompanied by
Undersecretary of State Thomas R. Pickering.

Last week, Colombia's largest leftist insurgency declared a freeze on peace
talks that have been President Andres Pastrana's main strategy for ending a
36-year conflict.

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, said it was protesting
U.S. military aid and lack of government action against rightist
paramilitary forces waging an unofficial "dirty war" against suspected
leftists.

The rebels are also maintaining a two-month-old stranglehold of the largest
coca-growing growing province while highlighting the lack of state authority
throughout the countryside. The FARC "armed blockade" has crippled Putumayo
province -- the main target of the coming U.S.-backed offensive -- creating
shortages of medical supplies, food and gasoline.

Mr. McCaffrey said FARC is worried that the U.S.-backed offensive, aimed at
eradicating drug crops, will threaten annual cocaine-related income of
between $500 million and $1 billion, which goes to the guerrillas and the
paramilitary group also active in Putumayo -- the United Self- Defense
Forces of Colombia.

Mr. McCaffrey said the guerrillas were no longer just "taxing" cocaine
production, but had moved into smuggling operations.

He predicted stiff resistance by some 2,000 FARC and 600 paramilitary
fighters to attempts by U.S.-trained army battalions to retake the coca
fields, and U.S.-funded programs to help poor coca farmers switch to legal
crops.

"We've got thousands of people with automatic weapons down there, and it's
going to be a tough go," he said

In a speech Monday in Bogota, Mr. McCaffrey acknowledged that neighboring
countries would suffer spillover effects as the offensive, known as Plan
Colombia, drives Colombian traffickers and insurgents toward the borders.

He noted that $180 million of the $1.3 billion package is aid to help
Venezuela, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador and Panama prevent traffickers from
shifting operations into their countries and to block guerrilla and
paramilitary incursions.

The visit, probably Mr. McCaffrey's last before stepping down in January,
comes as cracks emerge in a bipartisan consensus on Colombia which the
retired four-star general helped forge.

Rep. Benjamin Gilman, (R., N.Y.), a key congressional supporter of the aid
package, wrote Mr. McCaffrey last week to declare the U.S. aid package --
which provides the Colombian military with combat helicopters and an
unprecedented role in the drug war -- "a major mistake."

But Mr. McCaffrey said he would reassure Mr. Pastrana of strong U.S. backing
whoever wins the U.S. presidency. He predicted an additional $400 to $600
million in U.S. funds would be needed next year for Colombia and its
neighbors.

While saying he was upbeat about the long-term, Mr. McCaffrey predicted a
"giant increase" in Colombian coca production when CIA estimates are
released in February.