BUILDING ON BORDER TIES

Observers Expect Mexico's President To Strengthen Relations With U.S.

The smiles all around at yesterday's inauguration of Mexican President
Vicente Fox weren't just Mexican ones. For Americans -- and Californians in
particular -- there's plenty of hope that cross-border relations will be
better than ever.

Many U.S. politicians and analysts expect Fox to downplay the prickly
nationalism that has long been Mexico's hallmark in its dealings with the
United States and has hindered cooperation on many issues, such as
immigration and pollution cleanup.

But on immigration and drug policy, Fox may want to take the friendship
further and faster than U.S. politicians are willing to go.

The contradictions and opportunities expected to emerge in the near future
derive from Fox's ideology, an unusual hybrid of right and left that is
unlike anything U.S. policymakers have ever dealt with.

Under the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which ruled for 71 years until
it was defeated by Fox in the July elections, Mexican policy toward the
United States had a split personality. Mexico gladly welcomed trade and
investment, while rejecting foreign pressure on environmental cleanup,
labor issues and human rights.

Fox, who hails from the conservative National Action Party (PAN) yet
departs from many of its policies, has said he will break down barriers and
seek "cooperation at all levels, a real partnership among neighbors."

Fox's Cabinet has strong Bay Area roots -- Foreign Minister Jorge Castaneda
and National Security Council chief Adolfo Aguilar Zinser are former
professors at the University of California at Berkeley.

"I think we're going to see profound and far-reaching transformation in
U.S. -Mexican relations," said Harley Shaiken, chair of UC's Center for
Latin American Studies, where Castaneda and Aguilar Zinser have taught and
where Fox and several of his aides have attended conferences.

"It's going to be a road with a lot of possibilities but fraught with very
clear dangers. We won't see Mexican -- or U.S. -- nationalism disappear,
for that matter -- but likely a redirection in a more productive way,"
Shaiken said.

In an August visit to Washington, and in subsequent speeches and interviews,

Fox made these proposals:

- -- Drugs. The United States should end its policy of certifying countries
as passing or failing in the war against narcotics and should do more to
stem demand for illegal drugs by the U.S. public rather than merely
pressing Mexico to stop supply.

- -- Immigration. The United States should treat Mexicans better regardless
of legal status.

- -- Border. The United States should issue more temporary work visas to
Mexicans and eventually should open the border altogether in what Fox calls
a European-style common market arrangement.

- -- Foreign policy. Although Fox is relatively pro-American, Castaneda is
markedly left of center. A frequent columnist in U.S. media, he has sharply
criticized many aspects of U.S. policy. Experts say Fox sees Castaneda as
his alter ego, who can help build bridges with U.S. and European
progressives and Latin American leftists.

When Fox went to Washington in August, he got a chilly reaction from
presidential candidates Al Gore and George W. Bush, both of whom politely
made clear that several of his key proposals would go nowhere.

"I am proposing a 'NAFTA Plus,' " Fox said Sunday. "I'm proposing that 20,
30 years down the road we form a North American common market in which we
become partners, the United States, Canada and Mexico.

"I am going to persuade Bush or Gore, whoever it is. And I am going to
persuade the American people."

That's a tall order indeed, because Fox's concept would gradually eliminate
U.S. controls on Mexican immigration.

His visit seems to have produced some results, though. It built support in
Congress for legislation to end the drug certification program -- a major
irritant in the Mexico-U.S. relationship.

Even Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., who long has taken a tough stand
against Mexico on drug issues, now favors a temporary lifting of the
certification requirement.

Other Fox ideas on drugs are sure to rankle U.S. officials. Castaneda and
Public Security Minister Alejandro Gertz are vocal proponents of full
legalization of drug consumption -- a proposal that is political poison for
Americans.

But on the environment and human rights, Fox is likely to please. Several
of his Cabinet picks have impeccable pro-cooperation credentials, including
Environment Minister Victor Lichtinger, former director of the NAFTA
environment commission; human rights ambassador Mariclaire Acosta; and
border policy coordinator Ernesto Ruffo.

"I think we'll see a more cooperative attitude from Mexico," said Mark
Spalding, a law professor at UC San Diego and an adviser to environmental
groups that have butted heads with Mexico over border cleanup and wildlife
protection.

Spalding said he expects results in two areas. First, the United States
might accede to Fox's request for large-scale development grants for poor
areas of central and southern Mexico -- perhaps channeled through the North
American Development Bank, NAFTA's environmental aid fund.

Second, Spalding said, "If Fox simply does what he says and reduces
corruption, he will be the best president for the environment in Mexico's
history."

Companies often bribe government inspectors to ignore industrial pollution,
especially in the border maquiladora zone.

California politicians also hope for big results under Fox.

Gov. Gray Davis has spent the past two years repairing California-Mexico
relations, which were badly frayed under predecessor Pete Wilson, who took
a hard line against undocumented Mexican immigrants.

California's exports to Mexico rose 32 percent in the first nine months of
2000 compared with the same period last year, largely on sales of
electronics, telecommunications and high-tech consumer goods.

Progress has been slower, however, on expanding cooperation to other
issues, such as education of migrant workers.

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, who is in Mexico for the inauguration and to set
up a joint scholarship program for graduate studies, said Californians
should look at Texas' long -- but successful -- effort to woo Mexico.

"I understand people's impatience. It's been two years," Bustamante said.
"People ask what's been done.

"But look at Texas. George Bush went down there all the time, and he didn't
come back with results each time. Gov. Davis is doing the same thing.
That's what you do with a relationship. It takes a while."