COLOMBIA'S NEIGHBORS FEAR U.S. ARMS WILL INFLAME CONFLICT

Even as its $1.3 billion anti-drug program for Colombia is off to a
sputtering start, the United States is making plans to expand its aid and
cooperation to combat a "spillover effect" of drug trafficking and
guerrilla activities in neighboring Latin American countries, Clinton
administration officials say.

Consideration of the broader approach comes as neighboring countries, which
are already feeling the effects of Colombia's war, voice rising concern
that the aid plan will only inflame the conflict further and spread
instability throughout the region as American helicopters and
American-trained counternarcotics battalions deploy in coming months.

If pursued by the next administration, the broader plan would greatly
increase Washington's investment in nations from Panama to Peru, most of
which are struggling with political or economic turmoil and are seen as
vulnerable to the organized crime, paramilitary groups and drug-financed
rebels that currently rattle Colombia.

Consultations with Colombia's neighbors are still in the early phases,
officials say, and there are few specific commitments so far to provide
aid, training or equipment. But Latin American diplomats said they expect
the American aid in coming years to dwarf the $180 million in regional help
approved by Congress this year; Ecuador alone is seeking $400 million over
four years.

Clinton administration officials say they are merely extending their
approach to reflect the reality that the effort in Colombia cannot succeed
without regional support. "I think this is evolving now into not just a
pure Colombia issue, but an Andean regional issue, something it has always
been," said Under Secretary of State Thomas R. Pickering.

The administration felt compelled to focus on Colombia -- and make it the
third largest recipient of American foreign aid behind Israel and Egypt --
because it was "in such startling difficulty," Pickering said.

But he added, "I think in future years there will be a broader regional
aspect to this as we plan and propose to the Congress new budgets for this
kind of activity."

Whether Congress will sustain a regional approach is not clear. Republican
leaders have been vigorous in their support for what is called Plan
Colombia and have repeatedly pressed the administration to free up funds
and equipment.

During the presidential campaign, both Gov. George W. Bush and Vice
President Gore expressed support for Plan Colombia.

But even given the prospect of greater aid, several of Colombia's neighbors
are resisting an American approach that they say relies too heavily on the
military and could involve them in war.

"We feel the Plan Colombia is for Colombia," said Guillermo Ford, Panama's
ambassador to the United States, whose territory has been used for
incursions by Colombian guerrillas and rightist paramilitary forces.
"Panama does not want to get involved in the internal problems of Colombia.
We've been shying away from that in every way."

President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, a former army colonel, has been
especially outspoken against the American strategy. He ruffled Colombia
last month when his government allowed a spokesman for Colombia's largest
rebel group to denounce Plan Colombia on the floor of the National Assembly.

Officials across the region are eager, however, for American aid, credits
and trade advantages. Even if these countries suspect that Washington is
trying to buy their support for a plan with which they do not fully agree,
officials cite the compelling need to help underdeveloped parts of their
countries susceptible to drug traffickers and guerrillas and to provide
sources of income other than the narcotics trade for poor peasants.

Ecuador, which borders Colombia's rebel-dominated Putumayo Province and is
just emerging from a two-year economic crisis, is seen as especially
vulnerable.

"This problem is coming on top of us, just as we are beginning to feel some
oxygen," said Ivonne A-Baki, Ecuador's ambassador to Washington. But
despite its misgivings, Ecuador is allowing the United States to use an air
base in Manta, on the Pacific Coast, in the expectation of hundreds of
millions of dollars in future aid.

"Everything comes back to the issue of poverty," A-Baki said.

That has created problems for Colombia's president, Andres Pastrana, said
Michael Shifter, a Colombia expert at the Inter-American Dialogue, a forum
for leaders of the hemisphere.

"They're putting Pastrana in an impossible situation," Shifter said. "He's
being pressured by the U.S. on one side and his Latin American colleagues
are backing away from him. They see him as tainted by the U.S. military
anti-drug package."

Pastrana, who has pledged to spend more than $4 billion of his own
government's funds under Plan Colombia, faces a daunting string of tasks:
fight a war against two drug-rich rebel groups; improve the human rights
record of the nation's security forces; battle sophisticated drug cartels;
cope with a troubled economy, and pursue a viable peace agreement.

To accomplish those things, Pastrana will need sustained international
support, warned Bernard Aronson, a former assistant secretary of state for
Latin America under President George Bush.

"The Colombian wars have to be approached with the same level of regional
and international engagement we saw in Central America, Kosovo, Northern
Ireland and the Mideast," Aronson said. "None of these conflicts get solved
by the parties themselves." The Colombian situation is so dire that hardly
any official in Washington will predict a victory for Colombian forces over
the guerrillas. The best that can be hoped for, they say, is to drive the
rebels to the negotiating table.

Likewise, few advocates of Plan Colombia contend that it will greatly
reduce the flow of cocaine and heroin to American streets. Successful
anti-drug drives in Peru and Bolivia in the last decade merely resulted in
a shift of greater cocaine production to Colombia, officials say.