COLOMBIA'S PLAN

The conflict that has been raging in Colombia for more than 30 years will
probably become even bloodier in the next few weeks. It will be one of the
first and most important foreign policy tests for the new Bush administration.

Early next year the local armed forces will deploy new US-trained
anti-drugs battalions and helicopters - all made available as part of a
$1.3bn US aid plan - in an effort to eradicate immense plantations of coca
leaf, the raw material used to make cocaine.

The initiative is ambitious and contains some positive elements but it is
likely to intensify Colombia's crisis. Now would be a good moment for
George W. Bush to explore alternatives.

The Colombian government hopes that the offensive may strengthen its hand
with the leftwing Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebels at
the negotiating table. The destruction of coca farms will damage a FARC
source of income and increase the pressure to make concessions.

However, this is unlikely to be a long-lasting advantage in the fight
against the drugs trade. A military campaign will only bind together the
FARC and farmers, who depend on the crop for an income. It will lead to
more people being expelled from their homes. More than 90,000 people have
been displaced by fighting since July, increasing the number of internal
refugees to more than 1.5m. Many may seek refuge in neighbouring Ecuador,
Venezuela and Panama, aggravating Colombia's problems with its neighbours.
Worse still, coca cultivation will move elsewhere, just as it did in the
mid-1990s when eradication efforts were increased in Bolivia and Peru.

Even if coca leaf were entirely wiped out, it would be unlikely to end drug
abuse in North America and Europe since users would simply switch to
synthetic substitutes. An alternative policy is long overdue. A first step
- - as the US's European allies have suggested - would be to put more
emphasis on economic alternatives for those who depend on coca for a
living. The US is not providing enough support for such plans. Military aid
is necessary but there needs to be clearer evidence that its recipients are
not responsible for human rights abuses or linked to rightwing paramilitary
groups.

The aid must be carefully targeted to professionalise all Colombia's armed
forces and police rather than elite anti-drugs units. Colombia also needs
more help in strengthening and improving its legal and judicial systems,
which have been shattered by the conflict. In short, the US is currently
dealing with the Colombian crisis by focusing narrowly on drugs. It must
broaden that approach.