BUSH DEFENSE TEAM WILL FACE INCREASING WORLD CONFLICTS

Experts Count More Nations Suffering Unrest, Drug Wars And Other Problems

WASHINGTON -- George W. Bush and his team of Cold War warriors face a world
of increasing conflict, with experts counting 68 countries suffering civil
unrest, drug wars and other skirmishes.

The number is up from 65 last year and nearly twice the average from the
late 1980s when superpower rivalries begin fading.

Of the 193 countries it examined, the National Defense Council Foundation
found more than a third were in conflict.

The think tank, which has retired military officers among its analysts,
concluded the most dangerous strife is in Afghanistan.

"We're more in danger now -- citizens traveling abroad and trade routes are
more in jeopardy than ever before," retired Army Maj. F. Andy Messing Jr.,
executive director of the foundation, said.

"There are all these little wars" that are beginning to restrict the
ability of Americans to travel the globe safely, he said.

The report said the year's "stupidest conflict" is in Cameroon, where the
government created and armed paramilitary groups to help stamp out
widespread crime.

"The militias and paramilitaries have created far more chaos and death than
crime ever would have," the report said.

The foundation, which describes itself as a "right-of-center" think tank,
is aligned with conservatives who advocate military spending reforms. Like
Bush, it advocates limited U.S. intervention abroad.

"We can't intervene in this expanding plethora of conflicts," Messing said.

Gen. Colin Powell as secretary of state, former Defense Secretary Dick
Cheney as vice president and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld will face
new dangers, said Messing.

"Unless they reconfigure the Department of Defense, they're going to have a
lot of superfluous or unnecessary spending. They're going to have to look
at what the actual threat is," he said.

The report is being sent to Bush, incoming members of Congress and defense
officials.

The foundation's count of 68 conflicts contrasts with the 31 counted by the
Central Intelligence Agency this year.

CIA spokesman Mark Mansfield said the CIA list, which is classified,
includes only conflicts with "high levels of organized violence between
states or between contending groups within a state or with high levels of
political or societal tension likely to erupt into violence."

The Washington-based Center for Defense Information, a more liberal
research group that has issued reports skeptical of increased military
spending, using different criteria, counted 39 wars at the beginning of the
year, up from 37 in 1999.

The center's chief researcher, Ret. Army Col. Daniel Smith, said he counts
major conflicts -- or active wars -- where at least 1,000 casualties have
occurred, except in the case of Spain's Basque separatist movement, which
was under that level but is included since it represented a resurgence of
violence after more than a year of truce.

The National Defense Council Foundation's current report said the bipolar
Cold War model has disintegrated into a system in which randomized
conflicts pop up in all corners of an interdependent world.

Messing said the larger developed nations of the world, including the
United States, have not developed sufficient plans for dealing with these
low-intensity conflicts that are growing at an "alarming rate."

"As a superpower we have to be prepared for thwarting nuclear war . . .
prepared to jump in and save oil wells in the Middle East . . . prepared to
address the small wars that grow at a quantum rate," Messing said.

COUNTRIES IN CONFLICT

Countries added to the list of world conflicts this year:

Albania: Arrest of President Berisha leads to violent civil unrest; drug,
human and weapons trafficking.

Bolivia: Narcotics production and trafficking; violent civil unrest.

Cameroon: Government-sponsored mass killings and incursions into Nigeria.

Ivory Coast: Civil unrest, overthrow of leader and mass killings.

El Salvador: Drug-related violence; kidnapping and extortion.

Fiji: Multiple coups, ethnic and militia violence.

Guinea: Cross-border raids by Liberian government forces, Liberian rebels
and and Sierra Leone rebels.

Kazakstan: Invasion of border region by Uzbekistan rebels; militant
attacks; drug-related violence.

Kyrgyz Republic: Election unrest and terrorism

Laos: Conflict with Hmong rebels.

Liberia: Civil war; border raids.

Libya: Rioting and violence targeting foreigners; drug trafficking.

Solomon Islands: Coup followed by ethnic-based insurrections.

Spain: Renewed Basque ETA attacks.

Tanzania: Election unrest; violence against refugees.

Nations removed from list:

Armenia: Less political violence.

Congo: Peace accord.

Egypt: Fall-off in Islamic radicalism.

Greece: Less terrorism.

Kenya: Less civil unrest.

Mauritania: Reduced activity by Tuareg nomads.

Niger: Democracy restored.

North Korea: No major confrontations with South Korea.

Romania: Election unrest remains peaceful.

South Africa: Reduction in terrorist violence.

South KOREA: No major confrontations with North Korea.

Syria: Relative stability surrounding succession of power.

- - National Defense Council Foundation and The Associated Press