DRUGS WAR PUTS BUSH IN THE FIRING LINE

US Attempt To Rid Colombia Of Cocaine Warlords Will Put New President
Under Pressure

George W Bush faces a baptism of fire over his Latin America policy that
will threaten the first days of his presidency this month. Responsibility
will lie heavily on the shoulders of Condoleezza Rice, formerly his tutor
in foreign affairs and now his national security adviser, as the political
bombardment opens up on the White House from Colombia, Venezuela and Cuba.

This month a huge, much-criticised United States military operation, Plan
Colombia, will begin what is seen as the impossible task of stopping the
production of marijuana, cocaine and heroin in the wildest country in the
western hemisphere.

Five hundred US troops are already in Colombia supporting an army that
itself deals in drugs. This army's human rights record is as bad as any in
the Balkans, Central or West Africa or Chile, and its collaboration with
civilian death squads against leftwing guerrillas is routine and goes
unpunished. On December 21 alone, 26 Colombian military and police
personnel, including four colonels, were accused of collaboration in the
massacre of civilians.

Fighting between the army and guerrillas has forced up to 2m people from
their homes. The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc) was probably
behind the murders last week of Diego Turbay, the Liberal chairman of the
peace commission of the lower house, his mother and three bodyguards.

The former US secretary of state, George Shultz, and the conservative
economist Milton Friedman are among many now saying that the war on drugs,
so dear to Mr Bush, is causing more harm worldwide than drug abuse itself.
Meanwhile President Jorge Batlle of Uruguay is the first Latin American
head of state to come out in favour of the legalisation of drugs. William
Ratliff, from the conservative Hoover Institution at Stanford, the
university Ms Rice herself used to run, argued last week that Plan Colombia
was heading for crisis.

Colin Powell, Mr Bush's secretary of state, Mr Ratliff concluded, "must
have noticed that the large and war-oriented US aid package to Colombia
flies in the face of his own famed doctrine: clarity of objective, use of
massive force, certainty of victory and exit strategy, and public support".

When the body bags start coming back from Colombia, and the cost of
increased aid and of replaced equipment is understood, there will be
popular protest in the US, he forecast. Just before Christmas the US
government signed two contracts for 30 Black Hawk helicopters, of the type
the guerrillas have already succeeded in shooting down, which should all be
delivered this year.

For its part Farc, in its New Year's message, threatens to "defeat the evil
war plans of the governments of the United States and Colombia".

In neighbouring Venezuela President Hugo Chavez, a former paratroop colonel
who enjoys great popular support, is perfecting the none too difficult art
of infuriating Washington. He has refused US warplanes permission to fly
over Venezuelan territory from their new bases in the Dutch Antilles. He is
bitterly critical of Plan Colombia, as is Mireya Moscoso, the president of
Panama, who has denied the Pentagon leave to reoccupy the former Canal Zone
bases it gave up a year ago.

Mr Chavez has flown to visit President Saddam Hussein in Baghdad and
Muammar Gadafy in Tripoli. He has expressed his great admiration for
President Fidel Castro on a visit to Havana, and is supplying Cuba with the
cheap oil it desperately needs.

Most seriously for Mr Bush, Venezuela, as the principal founder of Opec,
last month nominated Ali Rodriguez, Mr Chavez's former oil minister, as
secretary-general of the oil producers' organisation in Vienna. Venezuela,
the main supplier of the fuel oil that keeps New York and other US cities
warm in the winter, is not expected to do any favours for Mr Bush, who
faces the prospect of a slowdown in the US economy, by trying to keep world
oil prices down. Rumours are circulating that hawks in Washington are
seeking allies in the Venezuelan military for a coup against Mr Chavez.
This would resurrect the image of the "ugly American" worldwide.

Cuba also presents Mr Bush with ticklish problems. The Cuban exiles in
Florida, who did so much to win him the presidency, and possibly his
brother Jeb Bush the Florida state governorship, will be seeking
recompense, perhaps in the form of harsher measures against Mr Castro. But
if these are introduced it will upset the World Trade Organisation, the
European Union and many US businessmen. The businessmen are seeking to sign
more, not fewer, deals with the largest island in the Caribbean.

As a Russian specialist Ms Rice may not have the experience needed in Latin
America, but one of her skills may prove useful: she is an excellent
ice-skater. She and Mr Bush will need all her dexterity on the hard,
slippery, surface of US relations with the Latin Americans in 2001.