CONTAINING COLOMBIA'S TROUBLES

While the myriad problems of Colombia dominate the headlines from
South America, most of Colombia's neighbors in the Andean region are
experiencing less dramatic forms of turmoil. The problems are
different in each nation and vary in their immediate causes. But all
could be exacerbated by a spillover of the war from Colombia - and
from Plan Colombia, Washington's new military aid program.

The Andean nations have always been troubled, and lag behind the
Southern Cone of South America in developing efficient state
institutions. The lack of rule of law has led to autocratic
leadership in Venezuela, Bolivia andD2C until Alberto Fujimori's
recent resignation, in Peru as well. Ecuador struggles with constant
economic crisis and its fifth government in five years. Brazilian
officials worry that they cannot fully control their thousand-mile
Amazon border with Colombia. They have already begun to move police,
river patrols and airplanes into the region.

The spillover from Colombia's war could gradually threaten the
stability of its neighbors. Already, nearly two million people have
fled battle zones to settle in the slums around Colombia's major
cities. Now some are beginning to cross into other nations. Rebels
have long crossed into Panama, Ecuador and Venezuela to resupply and
rest, but Larry Rohter recently reported in The Times that fighting
between Colombian guerrillas and paramilitaries has now surfaced in
Ecuador. In October, Ecuador accused the Colombian guerrillas of
kidnapping 10 foreign oil workers.

The cocaine trade that has fueled Colombia's war is also becoming
more internationalized. Cocaine processing and coca growing have
often shifted from nation to nation. When Bolivia and Peru began to
have success in reducing coca under cultivation, the crop moved to
Colombia, which now grows more than half the world's coca leaf.
Cocaine processing is even more portable. In at least one border town
in Ecuador, Colombians are buying land and the chemicals used to
process cocaine.

New American-trained and equipped antidrug battalions in Colombia
plan to enter Putumayo, the zone of southern Colombia that is both a
battlefield and a coca-growing region. Their mission is to destroy
labs and eradicate coca plantations. Ironically, the more successful
they are, the worse the headache they are likely to cause for
Colombia's neighbors.

Increased military action will likely intensify the war, producing
more refugees. But if the plan is successful in reducing coca
cultivation in Putumayo, coca will simply move to other areas of
Colombia and to other nations. Peru and Bolivia may see areas they
thought were coca-free go back under cultivation, and Ecuador,
Venezuela and Brazil may see their first significant coca crop.

That would expose these countries to the destructive side-effects of
coca production. Wealthy criminal groups are sure to move in,
corrupting officials, killing off police and each other, and eroding
the state's control. In anticipation of such a spillover and
resistance from the other Andean countries, Plan Colombia contains
$180 million for the neighbors. Just over half the money is in the
form of security aid.

This aid is insufficient. Ecuador, where the police frequently cannot
afford bullets for their guns, needs far more than $20 million. Drug
trafficking, squashed in one region, simply pops up in another. The
United States needs a regional plan - one that gives Colombia's
neighbors more aid to strengthen their police and courts and help
peasants stay away from coca.