HOPES RISE OVER 40% DECLINE IN TIJUANA SLAYINGS

TIJUANA -- Murders dropped 40 percent here last year, providing cautious
hope and much speculation in a city notorious for its level of
drug-trafficking violence.

Some say better crime-fighting tactics, such as doubling the number of
state homicide investigators in Tijuana, brought down the city's 1999
murder rate of more than one a day.

Others believe the decrease is due to the shifting alliances and increasing
wariness of drug traffickers, who are under increasing pressure from
authorities. Some speculate that smaller drug dealers may have reached a
temporary truce, and are resorting to warning shots rather than outright
kills. Or the powerful Arellano Felix cartel may still be recuperating from
the capture of two of its high-level administrators last spring.

"When you cut the heads off a group of drug traffickers, it takes a while
for them to reorganize and during this time their activities will
decrease," said Jesus Cureces Rios, president of the Northwest Association
of Criminology, which monitors crime in Baja California.

Homicides in Tijuana, Rosarito Beach and Tecate fell from 394 in 1999 to
235 last year, according to the Baja California Attorney General's Office.
Although the data covered all three communities, about 95 percent of the
homicides were committed in Tijuana, with more than half believed to be
drug-related.

The drop wasn't reflected in the other crimes that have made residents of
Tijuana feel so insecure. Car thefts, kidnappings and bank assaults all are
believed to have increased, although exact figures weren't available from
the state.

In fact, assaults resulting in knife and gunshot wounds rose 39 percent,
according to Tijuana police records, prompting speculation that some drug
traffickers are issuing warnings instead of making direct hits.

"We can't say that crime has decreased in general, but Tijuana is not a
city that we note as being exaggeratedly violent," said Francisco Javier
Cossio Gutierrez, who heads the Baja California Attorney General's Office
in Tijuana.

The numbers are high, however, when compared with similar-sized cities in
the United States. Tijuana's population of roughly 1.2 million is about the
same as San Diego's, but San Diego had 55 slayings last year, down from 57
in 1999.

Drugs a big factor

Much of Tijuana's violence is due to its proximity to the lucrative U.S.
drug market. The area is controlled by the Arellano cartel, responsible for
much of the violence and drug trade along the western U.S-Mexico border.

But many smaller players operate independently or with the permission of
the Arellanos. Some are hired to move drugs north, while others develop
their own drug businesses in Tijuana. They are frequent competitors and
occasional allies.

To deal with this complex mix, the Attorney General's Office in Tijuana
doubled its homicide investigations team to 42 agents last year.

"This helped immensely in their investigations and led to the capture of
people who were responsible for much of the killings taking place in
Tijuana," Cossio said.

Cossio said his investigators also made some breakthroughs in kidnappings.
Although kidnapping reports increased from 23 to 34 in the Tijuana area
last year, warrants were issued in 33, an improvement over 1999.

A record number of 4,000 arrest warrants were successfully carried out in
the state of Baja California last year, doubling the numbers in previous
years, said criminal expert Cureces.

"When a person knows that he won't be detained or arrested, then it's a
motivation for the acts to continue," he said. "These changes showed that
criminals can't carry on their work without consequences."

Tijuana city officials are also taking credit for the decrease in
homicides, noting that they have opened additional police substations and
mobile units in remote parts of the city.

"We are working not just with our words and with good faith but with the
facts which speak of the great accomplishments," said interim Mayor Juan
Manuel Gastelum Buenrostro, after a recent news conference touting the
city's own crime-fighting statistics.

The city's figures don't coincide precisely with the homicide statistics
put out by the Attorney General's Office, but they do show a drop of about
26 percent. The attorney general's figures are considered more reliable
because his office determines the actual cause of death.

Victor Clark, a Tijuana human rights activist, said that while better
police work has undoubtedly helped reduce the number of killings, last
year's dramatic decrease was probably due more to the dynamics of organized
crime.

"Homicides only bring more attention from authorities and keeps them (the
traffickers) from their work," he said. "They have probably been finding
other ways to solve their problems."

Gun deaths plunge

Violent killings here dropped in all categories.

Deaths by firearms, the primary tool of drug traffickers, dropped from 253
in 1999 to 152 in 2000. Stabbings and head blows are the choice for
small-time drug dealers and drug addicts. Killings using knives showed the
greatest percentage decline, from 64 to 32. The number of slayings due to
head blows or strangulations dipped from 77 to 51.

Tijuana's reputation for drug-related homicides was reinforced last year by
several highly publicized cases.

The February slaying of Tijuana police chief Alfredo de la Torre Marquez
was explained by local police as the result of a turf battle that occurred
when a Sinaloa-based cartel tried to muscle into the Arellano Felix
cartel's territory. Some U.S. officials, however, suspected the chief was
in league with the Arellanos.

A few months later, three Mexican anti-drug agents who had been working
closely with San Diego agents were found dead near their crashed car off a
mountain road.

Arrests made in several of last year's major cases may have led to a
temporary lull in the murder rate, because drug traffickers typically hire
professional killers.

Some of the seven men arrested in connection with de la Torre's death were
allegedly involved in the deaths of 14 others. Cossio said additional
arrests have led to the detention of people suspected in at least 14 more
deaths.

Victor Clark said that while killings have decreased, it's unlikely the
trafficking has. Approximately 4,500 drug houses operate throughout the
city, according to Clark, who bases his figures on interviews with drug
dealers and local police.

Vince Rice, a spokesman with the Drug Enforcement Administration in San
Diego, said the drop in murders could be the result of better cooperation
between the United States and Mexico. Last week, Mexico's Supreme Court
cleared the way for Arturo Paez, who is suspected of being a top Arellano
lieutenant, to be extradited to the United States.

"I really do believe the cartels are worried and they are hunkering down
and waiting to see what is going to happen," said Rice.

The cartel also could be taking a wait-and-see approach to President
Vicente Fox, who took office in December. On Friday the Fox administration
sent 700 federal police into Tijuana to crack down on the cartel.

"There may be sweeping changes throughout Mexico, and they are probably
nervous and afraid of what he may do," Rice said. "They want to see what
kind of government he will have, and then they will start to test him."