ATTACK ON GOVERNOR A MYSTERY

The shooting attack against Chihuahua Gov. Patricio Martinez is
slowly turning into a political whodunit.

At first, authorities said the Jan. 17 shooting appeared to be an
open-and-shut case. They considered Victoria Loya, a former state
police officer, solely responsible.

Though police had no clear motive, they said she had a history of
emotional problems that could be a factor, and she had been fired
several years ago after allegedly trying to shoot her ex-husband.

The governor, a member of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, was
shot in the back of the head and came close to being killed.

Fox's theory

Not long after the near assassination, which shook Mexico, President
Vicente Fox told reporters in Mexico City that "based on what we know
about the case and our analysis," drug traffickers were involved.

But back in Chihuahua, state authorities were saying the opposite --
that there is no link between drug dealers and the shooting.

The way some scholars describe Mexico's political structure, and its
alliances between officials and organized crime, it would be most
unwise for a drug baron to attack a high-level official. Under this
theory, the drug lord might carry out a hit for another official, but
he could not afford to directly attack someone on his own.

Loya is in custody in a Chihuahua City jail and isn't saying
anything. People in Ojinaga, Mexico, a border city opposite Presidio,
Texas, said they recognized Loya as an auxiliary police officer, or
madrina, for federal police there. She showed up in Ojinaga after she
lost her job with state police.

Others have speculated that Martinez's criticism of federal police in
Juarez may have stirred deep unrest in the force, and they point to
Loya's former role in the federal police force. However, it's not
unusual for politicians to blame police whenever they start feeling
pressure from constituents, so that theory doesn't make sense.

Recently, all federal police in Juarez were reassigned to other
cities. But, this too, is not unusual. Occasional "purges" occur in
city, state and federal police organizations. New comandantes are
brought on board, and sooner or later, they're gone, too.

Who benefits?

Assuming Loya didn't act alone, we might speculate she was sent by
someone who harbored a personal grudge against Martinez. That's
usually the first, and most logical, place investigators look.

If it wasn't an act of personal revenge or a hit by drug dealers,
then who else could benefit from shooting the governor? Once we
eliminate the other two motives, an obvious conclusion has to be
another politician. It's the one theory no one has talked about yet.

Should it lead in that direction, this case, like all other recent
political investigations in Mexico, will get mired down in conspiracy
theories before it ever gets solved.