U.S. OUT TO PROVE TALEBAN FUNDED BY DRUG TRADE

Very Un-Islamic Practice: Analysts Cynical About Afghani Ban On Opium
Cultivation

UNITED NATIONS - Targeting the Taleban's illicit drug-production in
Afghanistan will be a priority in any U.S. attack, but the first shots
may be through the lens of a camera rather than the barrel of a gun.

Proving the Taleban remains engaged in producing opium -- from which
heroin derives -- will help the United States win devout Muslims
worldwide to its cause, experts believe.

The Taleban, which controls all but the northern part of Afghanistan,
claims to rule according to strict Islamic law. But Islam bans the use
of liquor and all intoxicants.

Producing photographs of opium-producing dens would "show the Taleban
to be involved in a very un-Islamic practice," said P. W. Singer, a
military analyst with the Brookings Institution in Washington.

Until this year, Afghanistan was the world's largest producer of
opium, supplying 85%, much of it to Europe.

But in July, 2000, Taleban clerics banned the cultivation of opium
poppies, saying drug production was un-Islamic. That sharply reduced
this year's crop.

The United Nations praised the development, but many U.S. officials
were skeptical about the real motive. They noted the Taleban had used
revenues from the drug trade for years to finance its fight against
the opposition Northern Alliance.

There were suspicions the hardline Islamic government had been
stockpiling supplies that could be released later. Now it appears
their suspicions were justified.

Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United States, there has
been a sudden drop in the price of opium within Afghanistan, which
could be caused by a sudden increase in supply.

The price of a kilogram of opium has fallen from $1,100 at the
beginning of September to $283 by Sept. 18 and $141 this week, says
the United Nations Office of Drug Control and Crime Prevention, based
in Vienna.

The United Nations says other explanations are possible.

Afghanistan's borders have been sealed since the terrorist attacks,
preventing exports, legal or illegal. This would limit demand, causing
prices to fall.

An anticipated increase in supply brought about by the ban on poppy
cultivation being rescinded or ignored would also result in lower
prices.

"There are certainly possibilities that Afghanistan can start growing
again if the situation demands it, but that's not a decision that
yields results immediately," said Sandeep Chawla, chief of research of
UN drug control.

"Planting takes place in autumn, and harvesting in spring. Now the
questions centre on how much of a stockpile of opium the Afghans are
sitting on."

Until this year, drug production and trafficking provided $79- million
to $157-million a year for the Taleban.

There appears to be no publicly released evidence that Osama bin
Laden, the chief suspect in the terrorist attacks, and a "guest" of
the Taleban, is directly involved in drug trafficking. However,
reports say he hires out his militia to provide security for producers
and traffickers.

Intelligence officials with the Drug Enforcement Administration in
Washington are among those who have speculated international drug
dealers linked to the Taleban called for the 2000 cultivation ban to
reduce short-term supply and boost prices.

"It would certainly be interesting to show that the Taleban are more
interested price manipulation than following the tenets of Islam,"
said one U.S. official.

Possible evidence showing the Taleban had been stocking up came in
February in the annual report of the UN's International Narcotics
Control Board.

In 1999, poppy cultivation in Afghanistan increased to an
unprecedented level and was only 10% smaller a year later. Production
in 2000, which was also hampered by bad weather, totalled 3,000
tonnes, a decrease of 28% from the previous year's record production.