INCREASED SECURITY MAY LIMIT DRUG FLOW

U.S. Attacks Cripple Afghan Opium Trade

Heightened security at U.S. ports of entry will force drug cartels to
revisit old smuggling methods and spend millions more to keep the flow of
drugs coming into the United States, according to a former Drug Enforcement
Agency official.

Coupled with those efforts, the U.S. assault on Afghanistan is expected to
take a significant toll on the heroin market because the region is the
source for 72 percent of the world's opium production.

"I'm sure right now the smugglers would like to get their hands on (Osama)
bin Laden because he's not only crippled their source of income, he has
immobilized a lot of narcotics organizations," said Phil Jordan, former
director of the El Paso Intelligence Center, an 11-agency operation that
tracks worldwide drug movement.

Observers believe the increased vigilance along the border since the Sept.
11 terrorist attacks will cut into drug operations by forcing smugglers to
find alternate routes and means of delivery. But so far, despite the
stepped-up security, drug seizures are at pre-attack levels and street
prices remain the same, indicating smugglers are still getting their
product through.

Jordan said he expects to see a resurgence of old methods of drug smuggling
such as air drops, clandestine boat shipments through the Gulf Coast and
the use of legitimate cargo ships. Also, he said, Miami may resurface as a
prominent drug port.

He said the Sept. 11 attacks have undermined drug smuggling operations in
Latin America and the Middle East and offer U.S. anti-drug efforts an
opportunity to eradicate a major source of opium production.

"The window of opportunity is there not only to eliminate the Taliban, but
eliminating its main source of income," Jordan said.

In testimony before the House Subcommittee on Criminal Justice, Drug Policy
and Human Resources on Oct. 3, DEA Administrator Asa Hutchinson said
Afghanistan produced about 74 metric tons of opium this year. The amount is
a significant drop from the 3,656 metric tons produced last year before the
Taliban issued a ban on opium poppy cultivation on July 28, 2000.

Despite the Taliban's claim of opium reduction, Hutchinson said the
availability of Southwest Asian heroin and its market price remains the
same. The United Nations Drug Control Program believes that as much as 60
percent of Afghanistan's opium crop is being stored for later sale.

He said the Taliban enjoy almost complete control over the opium market in
Afghanistan and depend on money from the opium trade to stay in power.
Though bin Laden has not been linked to the drug trade, his sanctuary in
Afghanistan is indirectly supported by drugs because of the Taliban's
dependence on the trade.

Though U.S. drug officials believe it is too early to tell what the
ramifications from the Sept. 11 attacks will be on drug and terrorist
activities, some indicators show an immediate and continuing impact.

In the week after the World Trade Center attack, drug seizures along the
U.S.-Mexico border dropped dramatically as federal authorities stepped up
border security efforts to ward off further terrorist attacks.

The U.S. Customs Service, within hours of the attack, upgraded its security
status to Level 1, which calls for intensive anti-terrorism operations.
Under Level 1, all traffic at U.S. ports of entry is thoroughly searched.

Seizures reported along the U.S.-Mexico border from Texas to Arizona were
down 22 percent in the two weeks after the attack from Sept. 11 to Sept. 23
compared to the same period last year.

Smuggling operations, however, appear to have returned to normal with
seizures rising 60 percent in the next two weeks.

Dean Boyd, Customs spokesman in Washington, said the borders are monitored
by drug traffickers for any changes in security patterns. He believes drug
traffickers held off shipments initially after the Customs Service upgraded
its security status but resumed smuggling operations out of necessity.

"They need to get the stuff across, regardless of the risk," Boyd said.
"Security's tight. I'm sure they're looking for the softest, weakest
points, but when dope piles up and people need to be paid, they may be
willing to take those risks and view it as a cost of doing business."

John Gartland, DEA special agent-in-charge in Houston, said drug movement,
especially through routine routes and airports, will be affected by
increased security. He said drug traffickers may be forced to transport in
larger bulk, which will make their shipments more vulnerable.

"We're not seeing from our seizures what appears to be any real change in
the pattern. I think there may be a change in smaller level seizures from
people bringing in smaller quantities along the border," he said.

Locally, Houston undercover narcotics officers are not noticing any changes
in street prices for drugs. John Cannon, Houston police spokesman, said
drug buys are being made at the same prices as before the attack.

The increased security also snared a number of people now being held as
material witnesses in connection with the World Trade Center and Pentagon
attacks. The security net, however, has yet to snag any of those on
President Bush's 22 "Most Wanted Terrorist" list.

Jordan pointed out that the border security will have no impact on those
who already had slipped through before the attacks -- the "sleepers," whom
he described as cocooned terrorist cell members awaiting orders.

"It's going to be extremely difficult in the future for these people to
immigrate into the country or to cross illegally into the country," he
said. "Everything is being reviewed in order to avoid these so-called fake
students from coming over here learning and living and then all of a sudden
take orders from Saddam or Osama."