COLOMBIA'S LAST CHANCE FOR PEACE

President Andres Pastrana has made a last bid for peace, giving Marxist
guerrillas a 48-hour ultimatum: "Negotiate or I'll send in the army." But
his initiative is probably too late. The United States must prepare for a
possible military showdown between the government and guerrillas in the
beleaguered South American country. President Pastrana, who has only 6?
months of his term left, with presidential elections due in three months,
brought failure on his own head. He gave the Armed Forces of Colombia, or
FARC, a safe haven, granting them a state within a state. Instead of using
the territory, which is the size of Switzerland, to negotiate without
clashing with the Colombian army and police, the FARC guerrillas exploited
President Pastrana's generosity. The free zone became a holding area for
thousands of kidnap victims held while the guerrillas awaited payment of
millions of dollars in ransom. Within the territory, the FARC provided
protection for the narcotics cartels, which have been producing cocaine and
heroin. The sanctuary has allowed the FARC to acquire considerable wealth
from its kidnapping and drug earnings and equip themselves with modern
weapons. As he has done so many times in the past, President Pastrana gave
the guerrillas a deadline to come to the negotiating table, but then
allowed it to pass without acting. In any case, the time limit for the free
zone is due to expire on Jan. 20, and the army has been making preparation
to move into the area the FARC now considers its own sovereign territory.
Barring a miracle, Colombia's 40-year-long civil war seems likely to enter
a new and more violent stage. The United States' $1.4 billion aid package
to help Colombia eradicate drugs was criticized because it was largely
destined for the Colombian military, for training and modern weapons and
equipment. But, should it come to a showdown, that investment in the
military will be necessary. Critics of President Pastrana have argued from
the start that the only way to bring the FARC to the table is to negotiate
from a position of military strength. The left-wing insurgencies in the
Central American countries did not end until the guerrillas realized that
they could not win by military means. The failure of President Pastrana's
generous overtures to the FARC suggests that negotiating from strength is
also the best formula to bring peace to Colombia.