U.S. ROLE MAY GROW IN COLOMBIAN WAR

After 38 Years, Struggle Enters A New Phase

Bogota, Colombia --- Colombia's long-simmering war has entered a new phase
that threatens to escalate quickly and could spread from the rural
countryside to the large cities, stepping up the pressure for more U.S.
aid, analysts say.

"My prediction is for more blood and more violence, with more U.S.
support," said Bruce Bagley, a Colombia expert who teaches at the
University of Miami. "But it will be logistical support and advisers, not
troops."

New aid would go to a Colombian military that, while improved in recent
years, has been hobbled by poor morale, lackluster results on the
battlefield and a reputation marred by human rights violations. Repeated
reports cite alliances between the army and ruthless right-wing
paramilitary forces.

Colombia is a country where some doubt their own nation's will to fight,
pointing out that the poor do much of the fighting and dying in the
countryside, while the middle and upper classes in the cities remain
somewhat insulated and aloof.

"There are many here who want foreign troops to come do the fighting," said
Daniel Garcia-Pena, a peace activist and congressional candidate. "But I
don't think the world is willing to send its sons to die in Colombia while
the elite here is unwilling to send its own sons into battle."

The Turning Point

Things changed dramatically in Colombia on Feb. 20 when an outraged
President Andres Pastrana ended three years of peace talks after Marxist
guerrillas hijacked an airplane and kidnapped a prominent senator.

Pastrana ordered army troops to retake a 16,000- square-mile "safe zone" he
had ceded to Colombia's largest guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed
Forces of Colombia, or FARC, in hopes of jump-starting negotiations.

The Bush administration quickly signaled its support for Pastrana's decisions.

The rebel response has been to declare "total war" in its 38-year effort to
overthrow the government and institute land reforms.

In the past 10 days, the FARC --- declared a terrorist group by Washington
last October --- has kidnapped a minor presidential candidate and crippled
a large swath of the countryside by bombing electrical transmission towers
and cutting phone lines. The group has bombed bridges and set up
booby-trapped roadblocks, isolating small cities and towns that soon may
grow desperate for food, potable water and medicines.

The rebels have also tried --- unsuccessfully --- to bomb reservoirs
serving Bogota, an important escalation of a conflict that until now has
stayed mostly in the rural areas.

"The guerrillas are going to attack more, and the targets will include the
large cities, cutting power supplies, communications and other
infrastructure," said Alfredo Rangel, a top civilian adviser to the
military. "These attacks will probably increase toward the end of President
Pastrana's term in August because the guerrillas want to demonstrate their
power to the new government."

Copters And Advisers

Colombia currently is receiving a multiyear U.S. aid program that totals
$1.3 billion, most of it for military advisers, trainers and equipment,
including 13 sophisticated Black Hawk helicopters and 33 UH-1HN or Huey
helicopters. But Congress, wary of American troops being drawn into a messy
civil war, said the aid could be used only for fighting the drug war, not
the guerrillas.

Congress also limited the number of U.S. military personnel, who may act as
advisers and trainers only, to 500 at any one time. Private contractors are
allowed to provide an additional 300 personnel, many of them pilots flying
drug eradication missions.

But as U.S. aid has grown, it has become clear that the lines between
Colombia's drug war and civil war are blurry, thanks to the deep
involvement in the drug trade by the guerrillas and the paramilitary forces.

Last week, the Bush administration closely reviewed the restrictions on
U.S. aid to Colombia, with the Pentagon pushing for an expanded U.S. role
in Colombia's counterinsurgency effort.

Although overall Colombia policy is still under review, President Bush
publicly stated Wednesday that the limitations are clearly spelled out in
law and must be followed.

With the FARC now identified as a terrorist group, however, there may be
new debate in Congress over whether to loosen restrictions and step up
military aid to Colombia as part of the global war on terror.

Already, Bush has approved increased intelligence sharing with Colombia and
moved for expediting shipments of military spare parts. His new budget also
includes $98 million to train Colombian troops to protect a vital oil
pipeline used by Occidental Petroleum Inc., a frequent target of guerrilla
bombers.

It remains to be seen whether Congress will lift the limitations on U.S. aid.

Vietnam Comparisons

Critics have likened the conflict to Vietnam, a quagmire of elusive
guerrillas hiding in dense, forbidding terrain battling a government with
shaky popular support and a questionable will to fight.

Experts do not predict that U.S. ground troops will be here in the
foreseeable future.

But several factors --- an escalation of the war, further threats to
Colombia's oil, increased political instability and the drug trade --- mean
the Colombia problem will fester as a U.S. concern for years to come.

"We're in for a very difficult period," Garcia-Pena said. "The guerrillas
have used the three years of negotiations to grow and better arm
themselves, as have the army and the paramilitaries. We now have three
powerful fighting machines ready to go at it. Unfortunately, it is the
rural poor who are most often attacked."

Colombia's civil war has lasted 38 years, but for much of that time, the
FARC and other rebel groups were small, isolated bands with few resources
and little public backing. Things began to change in the 1990s as the
guerrillas tapped the lucrative drug trade, taking tribute from growers and
smugglers. By some estimates, the FARC now earns $200 million per year from
drugs, extortion and kidnapping.

The group has mushroomed into a force of 17,500 rural troops, along with an
estimated 5,000 more undercover supporters in the cities. Right-wing
paramilitary groups also have grown to an estimated force of 10,000 by
tapping the drug trade, leading to terror campaigns as they battle the
guerrillas for control of rural towns.

Colombia's New Army

Arrayed against the guerrillas is a Colombian army of 120,000, along with
30,000 more in the air force and navy. The 110,000 national police officers
have engaged in combat against the guerrillas, although their primary job
is law enforcement.

Colombia's military budget was roughly $3 billion in 2001, or about 3
percent of gross domestic product. That figure is about average alongside
Colombia's neighbors, but until just a few years ago, Colombia's military
budget was less than 2 percent of GDP.

Pastrana has pushed to end human rights violations by the army and
modernize the force, even as he conducted peace talks with the FARC. Pay
increases have helped bolster the numbers of recruits, while training by
U.S. advisers has created several elite battalions. The stable of
helicopters --- vital in a sprawling terrain of mountains and jungle with
few good roads --- has grown to 250.

"But they still have a long way to go," Bagley said. "Colombia is a huge
country, and it's very difficult to be effective with an army of 120,000,
and not all of those are actual fighters."

Rangel said he believes the armed forces and their funding must double
before the military will be capable of patrolling and protecting the entire
country. But he doesn't believe such an increase is likely.

"I believe Colombia's ruling class doesn't understand the size of the
problem and the magnitude of the force needed to solve it," he said. "Now
they are beginning to realize it, so they are looking to the U.S. as the
easy solution."