TURF WARS LIKELY AFTER ARREST OF DRUG KINGPIN IN MEXICO

MEXICO CITY -- The weekend arrest of the most-wanted drug lord in both
Mexico and the United States is prompting fears of bloody turf wars along
the border as rivals try to muscle their way into the multibillion-dollar
business long controlled by the Tijuana cartel.

Heavily armed soldiers surprised Benjamin Arellano Felix on Saturday night
at a posh home in Puebla, taking the feared kingpin into custody without
firing a shot.

His capture and the confirmed death of brother Ramon Arellano Felix, the
family's enforcer, are expected to cripple the cartel and spark bloodshed
among rivals at major border crossings such as Tijuana-San Diego and Ciudad
Juarez-El Paso.

"Most analysts are worried there could be an increased level of violence
among the organizations that are trying to establish new routes and new
trafficking regions," said Ana Maria Salazar, a professor at the Autonomous
Technological Institute of Mexico and a former official in the Clinton
White House.

A veteran Drug Enforcement Administration agent, speaking on condition of
anonymity, said several months of violence are expected on both sides of
the border until a dominant group emerges.

"I think it is going to be a while before there is a definite group or
groups that we can identify. I think it will probably be seven months
before anyone can give a reasonable opinion," the agent said.

Law enforcement experts in Mexico and the United States expect Eduardo and
Javier Arellano Felix to make a bid to save the cartel that law enforcement
officials say was run by their brother.

Gunning for their territory will be Ismael Zampada, a rival drug lord whom
Ramon Arellano Felix reportedly was hunting when he was killed Feb. 10 in
Mazatlan.

For the past 10 years, the Arellano Felix family has used violence to keep
a grip on drug smuggling into California and Arizona for distribution
across the United States. The Tijuana cartel may be responsible for moving
from one-third to 40 percent of the cocaine consumed in the United States,
the DEA has estimated.

The cartel is thought to be behind at least 300 killings in Mexico in the
past 10 years and was said to have bribed and threatened its way into the
highest levels of power.

Benjamin Arellano Felix reportedly approached politicians and judges with a
no-win choice: Accept our money or be killed.

"People were definitely afraid of this guy. I talked to Mexicans who were
absolutely terrified. They knew that this guy had so much stroke," the DEA
agent said. "If they perceived you had crossed them, regardless if it was
true, you were going to be killed."

Given the cartel's alleged high-level connections, the arrest of Benjamin
Arellano Felix could shed light on some of Mexico's darkest secrets.

Mystery still shrouds the 1994 assassination of presidential candidate Luis
Donaldo Colosio, who was gunned down while campaigning in Tijuana, the
family's home turf.

In addition, the cartel is thought to be involved in the 1993 slaying of
Mexican Cardinal Juan Jesus Posadas Ocampo at Guadalajara's airport.

"I imagine that there are a number of Mexican officials and former Mexican
officials who are probably having difficulty sleeping at night right now
because this guy has been arrested and (because of) what he knows," Salazar
said.

Many people were incredulous that the drug lord lived in their neighborhood.

"Ay, caramba!" said Luis Sanchez when a neighbor told him who lived down
the street.

Peter Harmeling, who moved to Puebla three months ago to work as an
executive at a nearby Volkswagen plant, said he never heard of the drug
trafficker.

"It's no surprise," he said with a shrug of his shoulders as children on
bicycles pedaled by and waved toy automatic weapons. "This is Mexico."