OPIUM POPPY CROP READY TO BLOOM

U.S. Optimistic Afghan Government Eventually Can Stop Drug Trade

WASHINGTON -- A fresh bumper crop of opium poppies is about to ripen in
war-ravaged Afghanistan, and there is little the United States and its
Afghan allies can do about it, top anti-drug officials said.

"I think we ought to face the reality in Afghanistan that the limits of
what we are going to be able to do are going to be set by security," said
John Walters, the head of the White House Office of National Drug Control
Policy.

"There are reports of substantial planting of poppies that are going to
produce the precursors of heroin within the next several weeks to couple of
months," he said.

The control of Afghanistan by a pro-American government could eventually
provide a historic opportunity to curtail the world's heroin supply,
Walters said in an interview with the Houston Chronicle.

But it is unrealistic to expect the fledgling government in Afghanistan to
prevent a resurgence of opium production in coming months, Walters said.

"The problem is, the (Karzai) government can be fully cooperative, and if
they don't fully have control of some areas you can have opium production
at levels nobody wants," Walters said. "Right now, obviously there is a lot
of chaos there, and that will be critical to what we can do."

Handling the opium problem will be one of the major challenges for
Afghanistan's new government, experts said.

For decades the crimson poppies that provide the gummy substance refined
into heroin have been a major cash crop in the region.

As other parts of the Afghan economy collapsed under a nearly two-decade
cycle of war, opium production became the chief source of cash for the
country in the 1990s. Thousands of farmers in villages throughout the rural
part of Afghanistan have long supported their families with poppy crops.

By the late 1990s, Afghanistan was producing as much as 70 percent of the
world's opium. Then, in 2000, the ruling Taliban banned opium poppy
production and the crop nearly vanished for a year. Experts said the
Taliban, which profited from the opium crops, instituted the ban to
increase prices so that existing stockpiles would rise in value.

But with the Taliban gone, planting resumed in vast swatches of
Afghanistan. A preliminary United Nations survey found that 84 percent of
the poppy-growing area has been replanted.

"There are plans in place to have secure operations to do as much as we can
to encourage farmers to destroy the (opium) crops and participate in other
forms of agricultural activity," Walters said.

"It is not clear today whether that is 10 percent, 20 percent or 30 percent
of the farming area, but circumstances almost certainly will not allow us
to have a majority of the growing area out of production this year," he said.

Earlier this month, the Bush administration without fanfare gave
Afghanistan a waiver under a program in which nations not adequately
fighting narcotic production are not given a certification necessary to
receive many categories of American aid.

Walters said that is likely to be repeated next year, even if the
government cannot control the opium planting in broad expanses of the country.

That's because the certification measures the country's intention, not the
result, he said.

The collapse of the Taliban could provide a unique opportunity to seriously
interrupt the flow of heroin around the world, said Walters, who served as
deputy drug czar in the first Bush administration.

"When I was last in government, we didn't really even think about dealing
with the world opium problem because it was too big. It was unthinkable
that we could construct a plan to influence it," he said.

"It is now for the first time possible," he said. "The key is to manage the
process of extending government authority and security in the growing area
over the next year or two in a realistic, systematic way. It may take that
long. It may take a little longer."

Afghanistan is among several problem areas Walters said will draw his
attention during what promises to be an eventful year in domestic and
international drug control.

Along the Texas border with Mexico, a recent surge in cocaine and heroin
smuggling followed a period of uncertainty after the Sept. 11 terrorist
attacks, Walters said.

"For awhile traffickers were not sure how tight the border had gotten in
response to the Sept. 11 attacks," Walters said. "There was a stockpiling
on the other side of the border, and a measurable decrease in the amount of
drugs entering the U.S. But in recent weeks it looks like they are starting
to move more product."

Walters said the increased security awareness on the borders after Sept.
11, and the emphasis to border security in the new Office of Homeland
Security could have the effect of stopping some of the drug flow into America.

Walters said the Bush administration planned a series of defenses
stretching back from the border that could prove effective against both
terrorists and drugs.

"We'd like to create a gantlet for drug smugglers and terrorist to run who
are attempting to enter the country," he said.

Walters also emphasized the importance of the ongoing campaign against drug
smugglers who are aligned with leftist guerrilla groups in Colombia.

"It will be a difficult year in Colombia," he said, noting that the country
is attempting to conduct a presidential election while fighting a guerrilla
war.

Earlier this week, the Justice Department indicted three members of the
guerrilla group FARC as drug traffickers, the first time insurgents had
directly been charged with involvement in the drug trade.

U.S. law allows American military aid and U.S.-trained Colombian troops to
fight drug traffickers but not the guerrilla groups with which they are
intermingled.

But Walters dismissed the idea that the Bush administration could seek a
more direct military role in Colombia, under the umbrella of fighting
terrorism.

"We've steadfastly taken the position that that is not an option," Walters
said. "The Colombians have a quite sophisticated military capacity. It is
important that they carry out national security operations themselves."