'3 STRIKES' NO DETERRENT TO DRUG CRIMES, STUDY SHOWS

Narcotics Demand Draws New Replacements Quickly

WASHINGTON - California's landmark "three strikes and you're out" law
contributed to the state's sharp decrease in property crimes and violent
crimes but has done nothing to reduce drug offenses, according to a new
report to be released next month.

The study by a consortium of the Claremont colleges was led by a
self-described skeptic of the get-tough sentencing law and is the first to
closely examine its impact on drug crimes.

Experts said the law, now under review by the U.S. Supreme Court, has not
reduced drug sales and possession because the demand for narcotics is so
high that new traffickers simply replace those who are imprisoned.

"Apparently, when one drug offender is jailed, there is another, and
perhaps more than just one other, ready to take his or her place," said
William Crano, who led the study for the Claremont Graduate University.
"Even imprisoning the most high-rate drug offenders for long periods of
time does not appear to have affected the commission of such crimes."

Ryan King, a research assistant for The Sentencing Project, a prisoners'
advocacy group, said he had not seen the study, but that other information
raises the question of the three-strikes law's effectiveness.

"There is no question that three strikes has had some effect on crime
simply by having people in prison for extended periods of time," King said.
"But New York, Massachusetts and Washington, D.C., have all experienced
significant drops in crime without the use of a three-strikes law. That
calls into question the degree to which three strikes" has worked.

The Claremont researchers found that from 1994 to 1998, California saw a 45
percent drop in the number of crimes committed to make money - burglary and
grand theft, for example. They said the three-strikes law convinced some
people that their crime wouldn't be worth the potential punishment.

The number of violent crimes dropped by 36 percent in the same time - not
because the law was dissuading people from committing such crimes,
researchers said, but because criminals were staying behind bars instead of
being paroled.

Crano, who has long been skeptical of three-strikes laws, said the findings
surprised him.

"When I started this study, I was hoping it would show that the law didn't
do much," he said. "In light of the data, there are certain places where
the law works pretty well and certain places where it doesn't seem to make
much of a difference."

The prospect of going to prison for 25 years to life, for instance, has
neither reduced drug crimes nor prevented new drug offenders from replacing
those behind bars. The study found that convictions for possession,
manufacture and sales of illegal drugs declined by only 4 percent.

Drug abuse can be a chief catalyst for other crimes. Drug offenders often
steal to buy more drugs, attack others in turf battles over drugs and hurt
people while on drugs.

"As long as there is a lucrative market for cocaine, for crack, for
Ecstasy, the government just can't keep up with it," said Robert Pugsley, a
professor of criminal law at Los Angeles' Southwestern University School of
Law.

Crano's study was not influenced by California's Proposition 36, which
sends nonviolent drug offenders to treatment programs instead of jail. That
measure took effect in July 2001, after the period Crano studied.

The three-strikes law was passed by Sacramento lawmakers and approved by
voters in 1994, after the abduction and murder of 12-year-old Polly Klaas.
Klaas was snatched from her Petaluma home by a repeat felon who was on parole.

Under the law, crimes such as burglary, robbery, rape and murder are
counted as "strikes." An offender with one strike faces double the sentence
for a second felony conviction, while someone with two strikes faces a
25-years-to-life sentence for a third felony conviction.

The Supreme Court agreed in April to review the case of two California
thieves sentenced to life terms under the three-strikes law. One shoplifted
nine videotapes and the other stole three golf clubs. Because each had
prior felony convictions, the shoplifter was sentenced to 50 years to life
in prison and the golf-club thief to 25 years to life.

The court is to hear arguments this fall.

The Rand Corp., a California think tank that tracks three-strikes studies,
said several reputable reports concluded that the law does not affect crime
rates or deter people from crime. They include a 1999 survey by the
University of California Berkeley's Franklin Zimring and another the same
year by the Stanford Law and Policy Review. Still other studies have shown
that some states without three-strikes laws have also seen big drops in crime.