CHAOS IN COLOMBIA

Despite brave words and even brave actions in the face of inauguration-day
violence, incoming Colombian President Alvaro Uribe Velez faces an almost
impossible job in trying to end a civil war that has raged at various
levels of intensity for at least four decades. Unless he changes the
policies and approach he has discussed most prominently so far, he is
unlikely to succeed. Early last Wednesday, inauguration day, homemade
mortar shells were fired in the capital of Bogota near the presidential
palace. At least 19 people were killed and about 70 wounded, but the
inauguration proceeded. The next day Mr. Uribe traveled to Valledupar in a
conflict-ridden northern region of Colombia, and vowed to crack down on
anti-government guerillas, chiefly the Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia, or FARC, with an army of civilian informers equipped with radios
to report unusual activities.

The show of determination didn't lead to even a momentary let-up in
violence. On Friday FARC soldiers fought right-wing paramilitaries near the
northern town of Santa Rosa for control of a gold mine and coca crops,
leaving 52 dead.

In central Colombia a rebel ambush killed four policemen. We talked to
Sanho Tree, a policy analyst at the Institute for Policy Studies who has
spent considerable time in Colombia and appeared in the segments on
Colombia in John Stossel's excellent recent television special on the drug
war. "Nobody believes either side can win militarily," Mr. Tree told us.
"Escalating the conflict will only delay a negotiated solution - and create
unnecessary casualties." Unfortunately, the United States is not playing a
constructive role.

The more military equipment it sends to the Colombian government the more
aggressively FARC will pressure peasants to grow more coca. The more
aggressively the U.S. presses the drug war - crop spraying is scheduled to
double next year - the more it drives up the price of the coca it is unable
to destroy. It's almost like a perverse price support system for successful
narcotraffickers.

The best bet would be for the United States to stop pressuring Colombia to
intensify the drug war. That wouldn't lead to instant peace; any solution
is likely to take years if it happens at all. But it's the most
constructive first step.